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German chancellor says risk of Russian nuclear escalation is low: report

09.12.2022 09:45
The risk of nuclear escalation by Russia is currently at a low level, according to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Institute for the Study of War has reported. 
Olaf Scholz.
Olaf Scholz.PAP/DPA/Kay Nietfeld

Scholz made the assessment in an interview on Thursday, saying that “Russia stopped threatening to use nuclear weapons” because an international "red line” contributed to "putting a stop" to Russian threats of nuclear escalation, the ISW wrote in its latest report on the war in Ukraine.

Scholz also said that his recent visit to China played a part in stopping the threat of nuclear escalation, British broadcaster BBC reported.

The German chancellor stated that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were in agreement that "nuclear weapons must not be used" and that fellow G20 countries had reaffirmed this position afterwards, according to the BBC.

Russia has no intention to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield: ISW

The ISW noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday "reiterated Russia’s official position on nuclear weapons, including Russia’s non-first-use policy."

The US think tank said that “both Scholtz’s and Putin’s statements" support its previous assessment that “while Russian officials may engage in forms of nuclear saber-rattling as part of an information operation meant to undermine Western support for Ukraine, Russian officials have no intention of actually using" nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

Fighting in Ukraine may intensify in winter: top US general

Meanwhile, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, on Wednesday stated that “fighting in Ukraine may intensify this winter despite the recent fighting tempo decrease from autumn,” the ISW also reported. 

Milley told the Wall Street Journal that the frontlines in Ukraine were “stabilizing.” Her added that, “as winter rolls in,” there would be a “potential opportunity for offensive action” by either Russian or Ukrainian forces during "the depth of the winter because of the weather and the terrain."

The US experts noted that Milley’s assessment partially supports the ISW’s assessments and forecasts. 

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has called for a special tribunal to hold Russia accountable for its aggression against Ukraine to be set up in the Crimean city of Yalta, Polish state news agency PAP reported.

Podolyak said in a tweet on Thursday: “Russia must withdraw troops and flee." He added that Russian "elites must go through transformation. And then negotiations are possible as a constructive dialogue that will record return of Russia to international law, amount of reparations and agree on a schedule of Special Tribunal in Yalta meetings.”

A resort in the currently Russian-occupied Crimea, Yalta hosted a peace conference in 1945 that determined the shape of the post-World War II international order. Poland’s borders were redrawn as its eastern part went to the Soviet Union, while the country was compensated with former German territories in the north and west, the PAP news agency reported.       

Ukraine continues counteroffensive

Meanwhile on the frontlines, Russian forces “reinforced positions near Svatove and conducted counterattacks near Kreminna” in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, amid continued Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, the ISW reported.

The US think tank added that Russian troops “continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka–Donetsk City areas,” in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province.

Russian forces killed five civilians in the region on Thursday, according to Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the regional military administration. 

Kyrylenko wrote on the social messaging app Telegram: "The Russians killed five civilians in Donetsk Oblast on 8 December: three in Bakhmut, one in Toretsk, and one in Netailove," as quoted by the Ukrainska Pravda website. 

He added that two more people were injured in the province on Thursday. 

According to Kyrylenko, it is not possible to determine the exact number of casualties in the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

Russia further militarises Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

Ukrainian officials said on Thursday that “Russian forces further militarized the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP),” the ISW reported. 

It quoted Ukrainian state nuclear energy agency Energoatom as reporting on Thursday that “Russian forces transferred several Grad MLRS systems near reactor number 6 and the dry storage fuel area at the ZNPP.”

According to Energoatom, Russian forces “most likely plan to use the Grad systems to strike Nikopol and Marhanets” in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, which are already regular targets of Russian shelling, the ISW said. 

Friday is day 289 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

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Source: understandingwar.org, bbc.com, PAP, pravda.com.ua