Coronavirus and Defender Europe 2020. CEPA’s Director in Warsaw: the United States is already planning Defender 2021

Ostatnia aktualizacja: 01.04.2020 18:00

The strategic message of Defender Europe 2020 has not changed, in spite of the fact that it has been scaled down, says COL(ret) Ray Wojcik, former US Army Attaché in Poland, Director, of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Warsaw. Planning for combined Brigade-level maneuvers and gunnery are still being considered, as well as potentially shifting portions of DEF20, into the summer, he added.

Defender Europe 2020 in wake of Russian aggression. Moscow 'likely re-deployed nuclear weapons back to Kaliningrad'

Ostatnia aktualizacja: 07.02.2020 18:00

'Defender Europe 2020 will be the largest deployment of US troops to Europe, since the Cold War', Col.Ray Wojcik, former US Military Attaché to Warsaw, currently director of the CEPA Think Tank office in Poland, told PolskieRadio24.pl. The exercises come after a series of threats and alarming signals from Kremlin, he added.

Zdjęcie ilustracyjne Foto: DVIDS / U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Calab Franklin

It is the first in a new series of large-scale exercises in the region including, for the first time, such a large-scale deployment of American forces to Europe, from the United States, Ray Wojcik noted
Russia has created the conditions which led to insecurity in the region; Kremlin has put its society into a state of constant warfare with the West under the Gerasimov 'doctrine'
Kremlin has re-militarized the Baltic and Black Sea littorals to an unprecedented degree; Moscow has likely re-deployed nuclear weapons back to Kaliningrad (and possibly onto the Crimean Peninsula)

Everything you need to know about #DefenderEurope 20: https://t.co/ooAO1s659E @USArmyEurope pic.twitter.com/ucmj0TmeQi
— U.S European Command (@US_EUCOM) December 28, 2019

US soldiers are already getting ready to come to Central and Eastern Europe where they are going to take part in Defender-Europe 20 exercise. It is the biggest deployment of US troops to the region since the Cold War.

A total of 37,000 soldiers from 18 countries will participate in the exercises taking place in seven countries, and 20,000 soldiers will be deployed from the United States. There will be 33,000 military equipment units in use. As Ambassador Georgette Mosbacher said in Warsaw, these exercise are in line with NATO's Article 5 guarantee "one for all, all for one".

A briefing on Polish-American before the Defender Europe 20 exercise took place in Warsaw on January 30.

Find out more in interview with Col. Ray Wojcik, former US military attaché to Warsaw, currently director of CEPA think tank office in Poland

Fort Hood, Teksas: ładowanie sprzętu na ćwiczenia Defender-Europe 2020, Coleman Barracks w Mannheim w Niemczech. Fot. DVIDS / U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Calab Franklin

PolskieRadio24.pl: What will the exercise DEFENDER-Europe 2020 involve? What is the aim of the exercises?

Col.Ray Wojcik, former US Military Attaché to Warsaw, currently director of the CEPA office in Warsaw: EXERCISE DEFENDER 20 (D20), is the largest deployment of US forces to Europe, since the Cold War. An American Army Division deploys from the United States and operates shoulder-to-shoulder with NATO allies and partners. Thousands of big (and small) tactical and operational methods and procedures can be tested during D20. Chief of among these is deploying forces rapidly from the United States, then these forces gather equipment already pre-positioned in various locations in Europe, known as: “Army Prepositioned Stocks” (APS).

🇺🇸 Army Field Support Battalion - Mannheim, 405th Army Field Support Brigade, @21stTSC, begins the repositioning of equipment from Army Prepositioned Stock #APS at Coleman Barracks in Mannheim, Germany 🇩🇪 to support #DefenderEurope 20 in northern Germany. pic.twitter.com/42hJSfNQyL
— Baltic Security (@balt_security) January 31, 2020

As well, American forces from the U.S., and based in Europe, deploy throughout the Central and East Europe (CEE) region, participating in multiple linked-exercises. The aim is to demonstrate allied resolve in the face of Russian aggression; test deployability tasks, military mobility; while building combat readiness and interoperability among allies and partners.

#defendereurope 20 will be the largest deployment of US forces to #Europe in 25 yrs. The joint multinational exercise will contribute to increasing #NATO’s #interoperability #readiness & ability to rapidly deploy and respond against any adversary.

👇 Key facts pic.twitter.com/nu9UazmrOB
— Poland in NATO (@PLinNATO) January 18, 2020

What is the context of the decision about these exercises?

Russia’s provocative aggression against sovereign states in the region led the United States and its allies, in coordination with the EU, to take a series of steps to reassure allies and partners and build partner capabilities to deter Russian aggression. DEFENDER-20 (D20), is the next step in the military sphere, to demonstrate allied resolve and capabilities. It is the first in a new series of large-scale exercises in the region including, for the first time, such a large-scale deployment of American forces to Europe, from the United States. Russia has created the conditions which led to insecurity in the region. Besides previously (and continuing) sowing and stoking aggression in Estonia, Moldova and Georgia, in 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea and continues supporting conflict in Ukraine’s Donbass region which has killed 15,000 Ukrainian citizens so far.

#DEFENDEREurope is the deployment of a division-size combat-credible force from the United States to Europe, the drawing of equipment and the movement of personnel and equipment across the theater to various training areas.

https://t.co/qk6K78dvVq https://t.co/5wkmBKa4NZ
— U.S. Army (@USArmy) January 26, 2020

Russia has revised its official military doctrine to explicitly treat NATO as its main threat; Has put its society into a state of constant warfare with the West under the Gerasimov “doctrine;” Has re-militarized the Baltic and Black Sea littorals to an unprecedented degree; and Has very likely re-deployed nuclear weapons back to Kaliningrad (and possibly onto the Crimean Peninsula). Moreover, Russia has broken its covenants and promises by: Illegally “suspending” its participation in the CFE Treaty; breaking the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; Using a chemical weapon for a targeted assassination inside of NATO territory (Salisbury); Is responsible for the shooting down a commercial airliner
(MH17); conducted an unprovoked attack on Ukrainian Naval vessels, seizing them and illegally imprisoning 24 Ukrainian sailors for almost a year; rejecting, inter alia, the United Nations Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, the CFE Treaty, the Vienna Document of 1994, and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation as the basis for a 21st century security architecture of Europe; and finally, conducting regular and large-scale exercises along NATO’s Eastern Border, attempting to threaten and intimidate U.S. Allies by rehearsing similar wars against their territory.

#Poland is ready for the international #military exercises Defender-Europe 20, #Polish #Defence Minister @mblaszczak said during a briefing held with the @USAmbPoland, concerning the Polish-#American cooperation before the event.@MON_GOV_PL #security
Morehttps://t.co/mkL1KtLItq pic.twitter.com/Ka8wGRnLyR
— Poland In (@Polandin_com) January 30, 2020

What is worth paying attention to in the context of these exercises, how do they stand out?

D20 is a bold decision of the United States to undertake, and to inspire allied cohesion, coherence and improve capabilities. Think about these significant numbers, D20 includes:

20,000 American troops deploying from the United States, and 9,000 American troops participating from Europe; 6,000 U.S. Army National Guard Soldiers from 15 states: • Arizona • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Idaho • Maryland • Michigan • Montana • Nevada • Oregon • New York • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • Tennessee • Virginia; 900 U.S. Army Reserve troops participating from the U.S.; 20,000 pieces of equipment shipped from the U.S.; 13,000 pieces of equipment drawn from 4 APS sites in Europe and 4,000 kilometers of convoy routes, allowing allied forces to test critical Military Mobility!

#DefenderEurope 20 has begun. #DidYouKnow, U.S. Forces will draw 13,000 pieces of equipment from @USArmy Prepositioned Stock for DEFENDER-Europe 20. #ThursdayThoughts pic.twitter.com/3fW22k6bDo
— USTRANSCOM (@US_TRANSCOM) January 30, 2020

Other important things worth underlining about D20. D20 does not just build U.S. readiness – it is designed to integrate civil authorities and U.S. European Command notes that it is a “whole-of-Europe” exercise creating opportunities for new synergies and improved capabilities among allied/partner militaries and governments.

D20 moreover is doing much more. You have heard of the 3-Seas-Initiative (3SI). D20 at its core, advances what I like to call the “other,” (perhaps less talked about) 3C’s: Capabilities, Coherence and Cohesion.

British Army vehicles are unloaded at Antwerp, Belgium. Our port operation specialists unload vehicles from vessels. With participation from 18 Allies and partners and 35,000 service members, #DefenderEurope will ensure @NATO forces are highly mobile and able to operate together. pic.twitter.com/MVlsgt4j5y
— British Army (@BritishArmy) February 4, 2020

What stands behind this concept?

Capabilities: Allied and partner Capabilities will be tested to the limit during D20; this provides the opportunity to identify gaps, problems and challenges in tactics, techniques, procedures and allied/partner interoperability. Then, the alliance, and Europe, has a way ahead to mitigate shortfalls in the future, to ensure we are able to maximize readiness, deterrence and defense.

Coherence: D20 sets conditions for allies/partners to better understand the limits to NATO’s current operational posture, and forward capabilities. Thus, D20 can help inform NATO as it continues its Adaptation, to respond to challenges on its Frontline (Eastern Flank) in a Coherent way, properly distributing NATO capabilities to maximize readiness, deterrence, defense and to regain lost initiative.

Cohesion: D20 plays a decisive role not only in real practical on-the-ground military activity, but it delivers an unequivocal message of unity to Russia about NATO, and NATO partners’ resolve. It helps to build more understanding in allied capitals for the necessity to resource such exercises, and to resource military capabilities per the NATO Charter. D20 helps to do this via a thoughtful and calibrated Strategic Communications campaign aimed at key allied audiences (not just Russia). In this way, citizens of Europe and the United States better understand the what and why we are defending Europe, and the what and why (if we must) be willing to fight for.

****

Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl

The coronavirus fake news pandemic. 'One of the sources of disinformation is the Kremlin, especially in Poland. China is active too'

Ostatnia aktualizacja: 26.03.2020 08:00

"Russia is using the coronavirus pandemic to spread disinformation in Poland and other European countries. It seems that from the Kremlin’s perspective the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemics is not only a threat but also an opportunity. We can also see a lot of China's activity, aiming at controlling the narrative about the origin and history of the pandemic,” said Olgierd Syczewski (Warsaw Office of CEPA) in an interview with PolskieRadio24.pl.

A wave of false information about the coronavirus pandemic has flooded Poland and other European countries.

"The amount of inaccurate information on the Internet is terrifying, even for experts who have been involved in the field of disinformation for years", says Olgierd Syczewski (CEPA, Center for European Policy Analysis) to the PolskieRadio24.pl. He points out that disinformation is based on well known social mechanisms. In the case of the coronavirus, this is based on fear, a sense of danger and therefore increased vulnerability to manipulation.

Can we identify "the culprits", the sources of fake news or disinformation campaigns? These are probably different in various cases because there are different motivations and reasons, from ignorance to a desire for profit. But our interlocutor warns that the Kremlin and Beijing are very active in current disinformation operations. "In Europe, especially in, Poland we see very intense disinformation activity on the part of Russia (...). The Kremlin's goals remain the same, only the context changes", he adds.

More in the text of the interview below.

***

Agnieszka Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl: The coronavirus pandemic caused, as someone put it, the fake news pandemic. We have been observing a lot of it in Poland. You deal with monitoring false information and disinformation tactics as an expert of CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis). Can you give us some examples of fake news that we most often come across in Poland?

Olgierd Syczewski, expert of CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis):

In my view "fake news" is a term currently abused - I would prefer to use the concept of disinformation, which is based on commonly known social mechanisms. An unknown disease caused by an "exotic" virus causes a sense of fear. In an atmosphere of danger and uncertainty, people are more easily manipulated by the information environment. As we know, "the sleep of reason produces monsters". We also know that emotions can determine many of our actions.

And so, in Poland one can come across false information about alleged government actions or plans (e.g. a shutdown of Warsaw), about alleged secrets hidden by the Ministry of Health (there were accusations of concealing the real numbers of infected people). There was a viral video presenting a charlatan who claimed to be in possession of medicine that treats COVID-19. Of course, there were more of these narratives. I want to emphasize that the amount of false information on the Internet was terrifying, even for disinformation experts.

We have been unmasking dozens of fake news in Poland these days. And what kind of fake news can we find elsewhere, for example in other countries in Europe, other countries of the world?

This is a topic suitable for a separate conversation. In the extended plan, however, we notice some narrative dominants. We must remember that fake news is only a small element of broader impact campaigns, aimed at destabilizing the information environment and weakening the coherence of international institutions, such as the European Union or NATO. Therefore, specific examples of misinformation were similar to those in Poland. There was fake news that the US and the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization were "creating the virus as a biological weapon"...

We know it came from China.

Likewise, there was fake news that Western elites caused pandemic to introduce tyranny in many countries.

These are all absurd accusations. Can we point to any sources of origin of this fake news? Can we identify them?

Based on the premises of these narratives as well as their obvious political and social goals, we can with high probability indicate Kremlin as one of the sources of the disinformation campaign.

In this context we may as well remind Alexander Dugin's statements (who is a pro-Kremlin and nationalist thinker), promoting the thesis that the pandemic is only accelerating the end of "liberal elites" and political systems close to them.

Attacks on NATO, on the EU or the US are also a permanent element of Russian disinformation campaigns. In short: Kremlin goals remain the same, only the context changes.

We have been observing constant propaganda operations of the Russian Federation for many years and its goals remain unchanged. These objectives are social disintegration, information chaos, reduction of confidence in democratic institutions and international organizations. The pandemic is yet another excuse to launch Kremlin's disinformation channels. For Kremlin, the coronavirus crisis is not only a threat but also an opportunity, as my colleague and an excellent CEPA expert Brian Whitmore has stated recently in his commentary.

Of course, there are other actors manipulating communication and information environment. We see, for example, China's activities that strive to control epidemic stories to their advantage, e.g. through furious censorship of virus-related keywords in Chinese social media. However, in my opinion, in Europe, especially in Poland, most of the disinformation activity comes from Russia.

Whatever are the sources of disinformation - we need to know from which sources you can acquire legitimate information.

In today's world everyone can be a one-person medium and source of information, so we cannot forget about fact-checking, i.e. verifying information. We should base our knowledge on official sources, such as websites of relevant ministries, statements of officials or dedicated websites, dealing with explaining and verifying false information. In this case it is good to check the website of the Ministry of Health, read the messages of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of National Defence. We also have many excellent experts in Poland who disarm false information appearing on the Internet day by day. I would suggest to everyone to find 10 minutes and look both for experts and services dealing with disinformation and add them to their feed/board on Facebook or Twitter.

Each of us could contribute to the fight against fake news.

We can do this in many ways. The #FakeHunter action has just been launched and everyone can join it. In this campaign Internet users will be able to report false or questionable information that needs verification. Opinion leaders can also join this project, and, according to organizers, will be equipped with the knowledge about confirmed sources of data on the coronavirus. This is an exciting and beneficial initiative and it is definitely worth using. However, we don't know yet how effective this will be. There are many other possibilities to fight fake news, of course. This is only one of many possible ways.

The results of this fight depend partly on us and our actions.

The most important thing is not to spread false information on Facebook or Twitter. We should not believe unconditionally in "confidential messages" allegedly from "someone important in government circles" and send it to our friends. In short: we should not share questionable content on our social media. Let us remember that information war is ongoing and each of us can contribute to winning it.

***

Olgierd Syczewski, the Program Coordinator at the Warsaw office of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), dealing with disinformation monitoring. He coordinated CEPA’s project aimed to monitor disinformation in Poland, the Baltic States, and Romania. He participated as well as a speaker and moderator in a number of discussions about the information war and co-organized educational workshops in the field of cybersecurity and the so-called deep fakes.

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