In its recent release, the ISW cites Politico's findings, according to which the President of Ukraine told the US House Speaker Mike Johnson in December 2023 that without new aid, Ukrainian troops would be able to "hold out" on the front until March or April 2024.
"The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow the Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations, and Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilise Ukrainian defences and gain ground ahead of the arrival of the American security assistance" - the ISW estimated in Saturday's report.
Two Ukrainian intelligence officers have reportedly informed the Financial Times that Russian forces are using ongoing offensive operations and missile strikes against Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for an expected large-scale Russian offensive operation in late May or June. The Financial Times also quoted a Western official as saying that Russian forces could make further "tactical breakthroughs" in the coming weeks, but would not "overrun" Ukraine.
The Russians have a chance for tactical advantages in the Avdiivka area, including the capture of Chasiv Yar, which has recently been their goal. However, this will not enable an operationally significant entry into further areas, not to mention the collapse of the Ukrainian defence in the Donetsk Oblast.
According to ISW experts, well-resourced Ukrainian forces are likely to be able to prevent significant Russian advances during the expected summer offensive - although the invading forces will certainly exploit some advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to the defenders.
The ISW report states that the Russians are utilising their current advantage in troop numbers, equipment and munitions availability - to gradually increase the pressure on Ukrainian forces, causing losses that the defending troops would not be able to bear.
Focusing on quantity at the expense of quality allows the Russians to gain an advantage, in particular because the suspension of aid to Ukraine has led to a reduction in the qualitative advantages of the Ukrainians. However, the Russians will rely not only on their quantitative advantage, the ISW predicts, noting that the aggressor's army is learning and becoming more innovative.
"The Russian military command appears to be learning from past operational planning mistakes in Ukraine and will likely conduct a summer offensive operation that aims to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian forces across a larger frontline in eastern Ukraine" - the ISW estimated.
The analysts predict that the Ukrainians will most likely be able to stabilise the front line in the coming months and launch limited counter-offensive operations at the end of the year or in early 2025.
Russia first illegally invaded Ukraine in 2014 - and has occupied a significant part of the country ever since. On February 24, 2022, Moscow took things further mounting an unlawful and unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine - which is the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II.
Numerous reports from a variety of sources state that since the full-scale invasion started, Russians have committed countless war crimes in Ukraine - breaking the Geneva convention on a daily basis and killing tens of thousands of civilians. The list of Kremlin's transgressions reported includes regular attacks on non-military targets, murdering and torturing war prisoners and civilians en masse, kidnapping thousands of Ukrainian children into Russia - as well as using internationally forbidden weapons.
Sunday is day 795 of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, ISW