In a 1994 interview with Teresa Torańska, the current Head of Law and Justice Jarosław Kaczyński, frequently referred to as "the most powerful politician in Poland" or "Poland's Marshal" (reference to Józef Piłsudski), said that in future he would like to be the "retired saviour of the nation":
It appears that Kaczyński's retirement is today being seriously discussed. The Polish press has been full of speculation based on the unofficial information that Kaczyński has told Law and Justice leaders that he intends to vacate the party chair in 2024.
The online outlet Onet, referring to sources "in Nowogrodzka Street" (the head office of Law and Justice), says that Kaczyński will pass on the baton in 2024.
Who are the favourites to succeed Kaczyński?
But who are the candidates to succeed Kaczyński? Four candidates are mentioned by Onet's source: Mateusz Morawiecki, Mariusz Błaszczak, Beata Szydło and Przemysław Czarnek.
President Duda has also been frequently mentioned as a possible candidate, however Marcin Masterlak, the Head of the President's Chancellery, has denied this possibility, stating that, "He has been twice President. And what? He's supposed to step back and become a party leader? Absurd."
State Tribunal
The first problem for this already short list of candidates is that most of them have been mentioned as liable for State Tribunal proceedings - the impeachment process in Poland for violations of the Constitution by state officials. Morawiecki and Szydło (and Duda) have frequently been mentioned in this context.
The "People's Tribunal"
The second challenge for Law and Justice (PiS) will be to choose a successor who is electorally viable. Przemysław Czarnek, the former Education Minister, is not mentioned in impeachment discussions. However, he is one of the least trusted political leaders nationally. He did receive one of the largest numbers of votes in the 2023 general election, but outside of PiS (Law and Justice) strongholds like his native Lublin, he is not liked.
The two criteria identified - being secure from impeachment and electorally viable - leave only Mariusz Błaszczak in the field. The former defence minister and deputy prime minister is the 6th most popular Law and Justice politician, in terms of number of votes cast in the 2023 election.
Sources: Onet, wyborcza.pl, interia.pl, Rzeczpospolita
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