“For the first time since the early 1990s, Poland will suffer a recession in 2020 with a fall in GDP by 3.5 percent because of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” the bank said in its latest macroeconomic forecast published on Wednesday.
The EBRD added it expected the country to rebound strongly in 2021 with GDP growth of 4 percent.
“While Poland has proved to be resilient during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the coronavirus crisis is expected to have a more severe impact because the country is highly integrated into global value chains,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in the latest edition of its Regional Economic Prospects.
It added that the recovery would depend on a gradual relaxation of domestic measures to contain the virus and a return to normality during the second half of the year.
Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Development Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz said on Saturday that, despite being hit by the coronavirus, Poland may avoid falling into a recession this year, and that its economy should rebound strongly next year.
According to the European Commission, Poland will cope with the fallout of the coronavirus crisis better than any other economy in the European Union.
In its spring economic forecast, the EU executive said earlier this month it expected Poland's GDP to shrink by 4.3 percent this year, but then expand by 4.1 percent next year.
The Polish government estimated last month that the country’s GDP could shrink by 3.4 percent this year amid the coronavirus pandemic.
But Finance Minister Tadeusz Kościński was quoted as saying at the time that economic forecasting amid the still-unfolding COVID-19 crisis was “of about the same value as astrology.”
Source: IAR, ebrd.com