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Polish GDP to grow 0.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024: central bank

14.11.2023 01:00
Poland’s central bank has updated its GDP growth forecasts for the country, saying it now expects the economy to expand 0.3 percent this year, followed by 2.9 percent growth in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025.
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).Photo: PAP/Tomasz Gzell

Meanwhile, inflation is projected to stand at 11.4 percent this year, followed by 4.6 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in its latest Inflation Report, which was released on November 10.

GDP growth in CEE 'close to zero'

According to the report, "in the recent period, economic conditions in the external environment of the Polish economy have remained subdued."

In both the second and third quarters of this year, "annual GDP growth in the euro area was declining and remained significantly below its long-term average, while in the United States it was accelerating," it said.

"Alongside that, in the region of Central and Eastern Europe annual GDP growth remained close to zero" in the second quarter of 2023, the report added. 

Global economic conditions "continued to be negatively affected by the effects of the earlier strong rise in commodity prices, the further tightening of financing conditions in many advanced economies and elevated uncertainty," the Polish central bank said.

Impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The report also said that "annual consumer price growth fell amid reduced consumer demand and the fading of cost pressure driven, among others, by external supply shocks, including the consequences of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine."

In its July projection, the bank had expected the Polish economy to grow 0.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2024.

The Polish economy expanded by 5.3 percent in 2022, according to a revised estimate by the country’s statistics office.

The Polish central bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Council last week left key interest rateunchanged, keeping the reference rate at 5.75 percent.

The panel earlier slashed interest rates by a combined 100 basis points, amid signs of subsiding inflation.

Inflation in Poland stood at 6.5 percent last month, down from 8.2 percent in September, according to a flash estimate by the state-run Statistics Poland (GUS) agency.


Source: PAP, money.plnbp.pl