The bank's projection is contingent on the government's continuation of measures to safeguard the economy, state news agency PAP reported.
Should the authorities withdraw protective measures, the country's GDP is forecast to grow 3.2 percent in 2024, 3.6 percent in 2025, and 3.2 percent in 2026, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in its latest Inflation Report, which was released on Monday.
Meanwhile, inflation is projected to stand at 3 percent this year, followed by 3.4 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026, the NBP said.
GDP growth in CEE 'picked up slightly'
According to the report, "economic conditions in the environment of the Polish economy have remained subdued" in recent months.
"In the euro area, annual GDP growth declined in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half, standing at close to zero," it said.
"In contrast, the annual GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe picked up slightly in the second half of 2023, but remained well below its long-term average," the report added.
"Global economic conditions were adversely affected by the effects of the previous tightening in financial conditions and the impact of elevated inflation on real incomes and domestic demand in many economies," the Polish central bank said.
'Consumer price growth in Poland has continued to decline'
The report also said that "annual consumer price growth in Poland has continued to decline in recent months," driven by factors including "slower annual growth in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages."
In its November projection, the bank had expected the Polish economy to grow 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2025.
The European Commission last month kept its forecast for Polish economic growth this year unchanged at 2.7 percent.
The EU executive also predicted that the Polish economy would expand 3.5 percent next year, maintaining its projection from November.
Polish President Andrzej Duda in late January signed into law the country’s budget for 2024, which expects the economy to grow 3 percent this year.
Poland's gross domestic product expanded by 0.2 percent in 2023, according to a preliminary estimate by the state-run Statistics Poland (GUS) agency.
The Polish central bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Council last week left interest rates unchanged, keeping the reference rate at 5.75 percent.
Last year, the panel slashed key interest rates by a combined 100 basis points, amid signs of subsiding inflation.
Inflation in Poland stood at 3.9 percent in January, down from 6.2 percent in December, according to an estimate by the country’s statistics office.
(gs)
Source: IAR, PAP, nbp.pl