After Wednesday’s trading session on the Warsaw stock exchange, Orlen’s shares rose 5.6%, pushing the company’s market capitalization to nearly PLN 150 billion, or just over USD 40 billion. Gazprom’s market value after trading in Moscow stood at about USD 38.9 billion.
Hirsch noted that the development carries no direct economic consequences and may prove temporary, as both companies are publicly traded and their valuations fluctuate daily. Nevertheless, the shift highlights the dramatic reversal in fortunes for Gazprom since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian gas giant was once seen as one of the world’s most powerful energy companies. Created in the early 1990s from the Soviet Union’s Ministry of Gas Industry, Gazprom had a market value of almost USD 200 billion in 2011. At that time Orlen was worth roughly USD 4.6 billion, more than forty times less.
Even shortly before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Gazprom’s market capitalization exceeded USD 115 billion, while Orlen was valued at just over USD 6 billion.
Gazprom’s position deteriorated sharply after losing much of the European gas market due to sanctions and the collapse of Russian pipeline exports. The company also faces competition from other Russian producers such as Novatek, while international capital has largely withdrawn from the Moscow stock market.
Orlen, by contrast, has gradually expanded beyond its origins as the operator of a refinery in Płock. The company has acquired upstream assets in Norway, refineries in the Czech Republic and Lithuania, and a broad network of fuel stations across several countries.
Its value rose sharply after acquiring most of the assets of Grupa Lotos, followed by the takeover of PGNiG and Energa, transforming it into a multi-sector energy group active in oil, gas and electricity.
According to Hirsch, Orlen’s valuation has also been supported by a rally on the Warsaw stock exchange and broader emerging markets since late 2024. Over that period the company’s share price has risen by more than 180%.
Analysts’ recommendations from brokerages linked to Santander and Bank Ochrony Środowiska also helped boost the stock this week.
The commentary added that global turbulence in fuel markets and strong demand at Polish petrol stations have recently supported the company’s performance. At the same time, the absence so far of government interventions such as energy price freezes, which in the past reduced corporate profits, has also been favourable for Orlen.
(tf)
Source: wnp.pl