The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz created clear winners and losers in the oil market, as panic over disrupted supplies pushed Brent crude from an average USD 57.26 a barrel in December 2025 to an intraday peak of USD 119.50 on March 9.
The first jump came on Feb. 28, 2026, the day of the strike on Iranian facilities, when prices rose immediately to USD 69.20 a barrel. The sharper surge followed in March after Iran blocked the strait, a route carrying one-fifth of global liquid fuel supply. Analysts attributed the spike not only to the loss of Gulf supplies, but also to sharply higher logistics costs.
By value, the biggest beneficiaries were the United States and Russia, each gaining about USD 5 billion in additional monthly revenue, while Iran posted the largest percentage increase.
Iran, despite being the main target of the military intervention, increased oil export revenue by 37%, or about USD 850 million a month. The gain came as Iranian tankers continued reaching China and Tehran was able to sell at market prices rather than the steep discounts previously forced by Western sanctions.
The United States generated the largest cash gain. With production holding at about 13.6 million barrels per day, U.S. producers boosted revenue by USD 5 billion in March from the previous month, a rise of 25%, as they supplied markets in Europe and Asia.
Russia also benefited as higher prices erased discounts on its Urals crude. Redirecting exports to India and China through a so-called “shadow fleet”, Moscow collected as much as USD 5 billion in additional monthly profit.
Among other producers, Norway increased revenue by 35%, nearly USD 2 billion a month, while Brazil added more than USD 1 billion a month as record output from deepwater fields lifted exports.
In Africa, Libya raised production to 1.43 million barrels per day, its highest level in more than a decade, generating more than USD 2 billion in additional March revenue. Nigeria, despite a drop in production to 1.41 million barrels per day from 1.43 million due to vandalism and infrastructure damage, still benefited from prices above USD 100 a barrel. With its budget based on USD 64.85 oil, Nigeria earned about USD 55.5 million more per day than planned, or nearly USD 1.7 billion over the month, lifting state royalty revenues 88%.
The heaviest losses fell on exporters dependent on the blocked Gulf route. Iraq lost access to global markets through its southern ports, cutting export revenue by 76% and costing about USD 5.5 billion a month compared with the pre-war scenario. Kuwait’s oil trade revenue fell 73%, leaving a monthly budget gap of about USD 2.3 billion.
Saudi Arabia’s position was more complex. Regional producers were forced to cut output by nearly 10 million barrels per day, and Saudi exports fell 39% in March from the previous month. But Saudi Aramco imposed a record “war premium” on Asian buyers, raising official selling prices by USD 19.50 a barrel above market benchmarks. That helped the kingdom still post a monthly revenue increase of USD 558 million.
The price surge also revived higher-cost production. In the U.S. shale sector, especially in the Permian Basin, new wells typically break even at around USD 60 to USD 68 a barrel. Once prices climbed above USD 100, producers were making more than USD 40 a barrel in profit and quickly moved to activate “DUCs,” or wells already drilled but not yet completed.
High prices also improved margins in Canada’s oil sands, where modern projects generally require more than USD 41 a barrel, and in Brazil’s offshore “pre-salt” fields, where break-even levels are about USD 35 to USD 40.
Norway remained one of the most profitable producers. At the Johan Sverdrup field, the full break-even price is below USD 20 a barrel, and the physical cost of producing a barrel is less than USD 2.
Saudi Arabia, despite producing oil for about USD 3.50 a barrel, faces a far higher fiscal “break-even” level. The kingdom needs oil at USD 86.60 a barrel to balance its budget, underlining how dependent Gulf producers remain on high prices.
(jh)
Source: Polish Radio