For 2025, the central bank sees CPI inflation at 3.7 percent and GDP growth at 3.4 percent.
The July report had projected both inflation and growth at 3.1 percent for 2026.
NBP said stronger economic activity will be supported by EU recovery funds under the National Recovery Plan (KPO), boosting investment and household consumption.
However, growth is expected to slow in 2027 once EU fund spending winds down.
The bank expects unemployment to fall to 2.8 percent in 2026, down from 3 percent in 2025, with wages rising 6.4 percent that year – slower than the 8.7 percent pace forecast for 2025.
NBP noted that external demand will play only a limited role in supporting growth, citing the modest recovery in the euro area.
It also warned that energy prices, global commodity markets, EU emissions policies and geopolitical tension – including the ongoing Russia's war in Ukraine – pose key risks to its outlook.
The projections will inform upcoming Monetary Policy Council decisions on interest rates, which NBP currently expects to remain unchanged.
(ał)
Source: PAP, nbp.pl