The ISW made the assessment in its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Monday night, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
The US experts said: “Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to coerce Belarus into further Russian-Belarusian integration concessions during a meeting in Minsk on December 19. “
The ISW reported that Putin and Lukashenko “refrained from publicly discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with both leaders noting that Belarus still faces a Western threat.”
Meanwhile, Putin announced that he may consider “training Belarusian combat aviation crews for the use of ‘munitions with special warheads’ due to the ‘escalating’ situation on the Union State’s external borders," the US experts wrote.
The ISW reiterated its assessment that “Lukashenko uses the rhetoric of defending Belarusian borders against the West and NATO in an effort to avoid participating in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Lukashenko used “similar hints about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus on February 17 in the context of claimed Western aggression,” the US experts added.
After Monday’s meeting, Lukashenko said Russia would “deliver S-400 air defence complexes and Iskander complexes,” while Putin stated that both leaders “discussed the formation of a united defence space,” according to the Washington-based think tank.
The ISW maintained its prediction that “Belarus’ participation in Putin’s war against Ukraine remains unlikely.”
In the wake of the Lukashenko-Putin talks in Minsk, the Kremlin “attempted to conceal Putin’s likely original intentions to pressure Lukashenko into further concessions regarding integration with the Russian Federation,” according to the US think tank.
Notably, Putin stated with reference to Belarus that “Russia is not interested in absorbing anyone,” the ISW reported.
According to the US experts, this statement “appears to be a defensive reaction” to Lukashenko’s “reiteration of Belarusian independence and full sovereignty on December 16.”
Moreover, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin did not go to Belarus to convince Lukashenko to join the war, and described such speculation as unfounded and "foolish," the ISW said.
The US think tank noted that while “Peskov had avidly denied Putin’s intention to invade Ukraine days before the start of offensive operation in a similar fashion,” this denial “is more likely an attempt to cover up Putin’s desperation to involve Lukashenko in the war and apparent failure—again—to do so.”
International support for Ukraine must grow next year: Zelensky
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country must ensure that the international community steps up its support to Ukraine next year, the PAP news agency reported.
In a video address to the nation on Monday night, Zelensky stated: “The key task for all of us now – my task, and that of each of our diplomats and officials – is that world support for Ukraine next year not just remains at the same level as this year, but increases.”
He added that Ukraine needed artillery, “more guns, shells,” as well as “modern tanks that have not yet been delivered to Ukraine, longer-range MLRS, modern and truly effective air defence.”
Putin seeks to deflect 'responsibility for military failure'
The UK Ministry of Defence reported that Putin on December 16 visited the "Joint Headquarters of the Special Military Operation.”
In their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, published on Twitter on Tuesday, the British analysts said: “Putin was filmed meeting with a number of senior military officers including Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu.”
During the get-together, Putin “invited proposals for next steps of the Special Military Operation,” while the “Commander of the Russian Group of Forces in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin, was one of those who presented a report,” according to the UK Ministry of Defence.
“In this choreographed meeting Putin likely intended to demonstrate collective responsibility for the special military operation,” the British defence ministry said.
It added: “This display likely aimed to deflect Putin’s responsibility for military failure, high fatality rates and increasing public dissatisfaction from mobilisation. The televised footage was probably designed to also dispel social media rumours of General Gerasimov’s dismissal.”
Tuesday is day 300 of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, president.gov.ua, UK Ministry of Defence