"The main effect has already been achieved. Russia is panicking and taking steps that demonstrate its weakness. And for an authoritarian state, weakness is the greatest challenge", Mahda said.
Moscow's nervousness was on display ahead of the parade marking the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, with Russia's defense ministry announcing a ceasefire from May 8 to 10 — even as Russia ignored a unilateral truce declared earlier by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For the first time in 18 years, the parade will feature no column of military vehicles.
"When Russians in one breath speak of the need to demilitarize Ukraine while organizing a parade without military hardware, everything is clear", Mahda said.
He also noted the EU's firm rejection of Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova's calls to evacuate diplomatic staff from Kyiv.
"Zakharova hysterically speaks of strikes and calls for embassies to evacuate from Kyiv, and the European Union responds with 'no.' That is a very telling detail", he said.
Asked whether Ukraine would actually strike Moscow on May 9, Mahda said attacks on Russian territory were likely, but not necessarily aimed at Red Square itself. "Russia's territory is vast, and its behavior is such that effective strikes will undoubtedly occur".
The analyst concluded that the broader picture favored Ukraine. "Putin asked Trump to secure a ceasefire — all of this shows that Ukraine today is significantly closer to victory than Russia", he said.
(jh)
Source: PAP