The British analysts made the observation in their latest intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine, published on Thursday.
The UK defence ministry wrote: “Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum. Their forces have highly likely established a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, which forms the northern boundary of Russian-occupied Kherson.”
Ukrainian artillery damages bridges to disrupt Russian supplies
According to the UK analysts, “Ukraine has used its new long range artillery to damage at least three of the bridges across the Dnipro River which Russia relies upon to supply the areas under its control.”
For instance, “One of these, the 1000 metre long Antonivsky bridge near Kherson city, was damaged last week,” the British defence ministry reported, adding that “Ukraine struck it again on 27 July 2022 and it is highly likely that the crossing is now unusable.”
As a result, Russia’s 49th Army, which is stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro River, “now looks highly vulnerable,” according to the UK analysts.
Ukraine cuts off Kherson City from other Russian-occupied areas
They added that Kherson City, "the most politically significant population centre occupied by Russia, is now virtually cut off from the other occupied territories.”
The British Ministry of Defence estimated that the loss of Kherson City “would severely undermine Russia’s attempts to paint the occupation as a success.”
Russian forces aim to capture all of Donbas
Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Thursday: “The enemy is focusing its main efforts on establishing full control over the territories of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.”
Moreover, Russian units are seeking to maintain “the captured Kherson and Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv oblast's parts, creating favourable conditions for resuming the offensive in certain directions, as well as blocking Ukraine's maritime communications in the Black Sea,” Ukraine’s military command added.
"In the direction of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast ... the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position, but our soldiers repelled the assaults in the Klynove - Bakhmut and Myronivskyi - Semihirya directions and forced the invaders to retreat,” the Ukrainian General Staff said.
It added that Russian troops had "partial success in the direction of Vidrodzhennya - Vershyna" and were "entrenched southeast of the settlement of Vershyna.”
However, “the attempt to advance in the directions Volodymyrivka – Soledar and Streapivka – Soledar ended in failure for the occupiers,” according to Ukraine’s military command.
The Ukrainian General Staff further reported: “The enemy carried out artillery fire in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Mykolaivka, Nova Kamyanka, Vesela Dolyna, Kodema, Semihirya ... airstrikes near Yakovlivka, Pokrovsky and Soledar.”
Fighting in northern, southern Ukraine
Ukraine’s military command also reported artillery shelling in areas around the northeastern city of Kharkiv as well as "Dementiivka, Mospanove, Sosnivka, Udy, Cherkaski Tyshky, Stary Saltiv, Tsirkuny, Protopivka, Zlochiv, Ruski Tyshki, Petrivka, Pryshyb, Prudyanka and Kalynove settlements."
The Ukrainian General Staff said "the enemy launched an airstrike near Rusky Tyshky" and "carried out artillery fire near Mykolaivka in the Chernihiv oblast and Tovstodubovo and Ryasne in the Sumy oblast.”
Meanwhile, "on the Avdiyivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia fronts," Russian forces shelled Maryinka, Biloghirya, Pavlivka and Pervomaiske, among other settlements, Ukraine’s military command said.
"On the South Buh front," Russian forces were concentrating their "efforts on holding the occupied lines and returning lost positions in the Kryvorizka direction,” the Ukrainian General Staff reported, adding that Ukrainian soldiers "repulsed the assault in the direction of Bruskynske - Bilohirka," causing the Russians to suffer losses and withdraw.
Meanwhile, “in the waters of the Black Sea, outside the base points," there were three Russian "carriers of sea-based cruise missiles of the Kalibr type,” according to Ukraine’s military command.
Russian army seeking to seize Siversk, Bakhmut
According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War, the Russian army appears to be able to conduct only two major offensives in Ukraine at the moment, on Siversk and Bakhmut in the southeastern Donetsk Oblast.
In its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Thursday night, the think tank said that Russian forces appeared "able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on Bakhmut.”
The US experts added that these operations "focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16.”
The ISW reported that Russian forces "have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine.”
“The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine,” the think tank said.
Echoing other sources, the US analysts said that Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge near the southern Kherson City for the third time in 10 days on July 27, "likely rendering it unusable.”
‘Lack of Ukrainian collaborators’
Meanwhile, Russian occupation authorities were "importing Russians to work in occupied territories due to a lack of Ukrainian collaborators,” according to the ISW.
At the same time, “Mariupol occupation authorities" continued "withholding humanitarian aid to force civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration,” the think tank reported.
It also said that the "Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train" and was "forming a third battalion to deploy to Ukraine.”
Thursday is day 155 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua, understandingwar.org