In its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Thursday night, the US think tank wrote: “Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.”
The ISW noted that, according to Ukrainian military officials, “Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8.”
The US experts pointed out that despite this announcement, “the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably did not issue any statement regarding Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast.”
Criticism of Russian command
The think tank reported: “Ukrainian successes and the Russian MoD’s silence prompted many Russian milbloggers to criticise and debate Russian failures to retain control over the city of Balakliya, approximately 44km northwest of Izyum.”
“Some milbloggers claimed that Russian forces fully or partially withdrew from Balakliya in good order, while others complained that Ukrainian forces beat Russian forces out of the settlement,” the ISW said.
It added that “Others noted that Rosgvardia units operating in the area did not coordinate their defenses or have sufficient artillery capabilities to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks in the region.”
Moreover, “Milbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for ‘obvious and predictable’ Ukrainian counteroffensives,” the US analysts said.
As the ISW observed, “Others noted that Ukrainian forces have ‘completely outplayed’ the Russian military command in Balakliya, while others encouraged readers to wait to discuss Russian losses and withhold criticism until Russian forces stabilise the frontlines.”
Echoes of Bilohorivka
According to the US experts, “The current tone and scale of Russian milblogger criticism echo the response to Russia’s loss of a large amount of armour in a failed Russian river crossing in Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, in May.”
As the ISW assessed at the time, “the catastrophic Russian losses suffered due to incompetence shook the confidence of pro-Russian milbloggers, sparking criticism of the Russian war effort.”
The US think tank pointed out that “Russian milbloggers and social media users accessed satellite imagery that showed devastating losses of Russian military equipment, which caused many to comment on the incompetence of the Russian military and analyze the scene on a tactical level.”
What’s more, “The Russian MoD did not comment on the situation, fueling burgeoning doubts about Russia’s prospects in Ukraine,” the ISW noted.
Russian MoD’s mistake repeated?
In the view of the US analysts, “The Russian MoD repeated its Bilohorivka information mistake by failing to acknowledge the situation around Kharkiv Oblast and establish a desired narrative, leaving milbloggers to fill this gap with criticism of Russian forces.”
“The Russian MoD only claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Balakliya,” the ISW said.
It noted that “Some milbloggers complained that the Russian MoD did not seize the information space in a timely manner to prevent the spread of Ukrainian social media on Russian Telegram channels, leading to distrust among Russian audiences.”
The US experts pointed out that “Milbloggers largely supported the Russian MoD’s narratives that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast had completely failed just days prior to Ukrainian breakthroughs in Kharkiv Oblast.”
‘Flaws in Russia’s war-time information strategy’
In their view, “Such a shift in milblogger perceptions of Russian progress in Ukraine can be partially attributed to the flaws in the Russian war-time information strategy.”
According to the ISW, this strategy has three main flaws.
First, “The Russian MoD struggles to address unexpected Ukrainian operations because its information strategy relies on portraying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an easy and faultless operation,” the US experts said, adding that “This promotes a lack of situational awareness within the Kremlin and the Russian media space.”
Second, “The Russian MoD needs a significant amount of time to develop and spread false narratives in the Russian information space,” the ISW noted.
It added: “The Kremlin and Russian MoD successfully did so prior to the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, and milbloggers largely followed the Kremlin’s line. The Russian MoD failed to have a narrative ready for Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast.”
And third, “Milbloggers will share and promote footage and imagery of fighting unfavourable to Russian forces that will dominate coverage in the Russian information space if the Russian MoD does not provide its own media,” the US experts assessed.
Friday is day 198 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Source: understandingwar.org, ukrinform.net