Will it collapse, will it not, is it already collapsing, or is it stable? Reports about a possible slowdown or even a complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, seem to change almost every week. This is because the first signs of weakening drew intense attention from experts around the world, who are examining the issue from many different angles. Climate scientists have now published findings suggesting that the circulation may already have reached a point of no return.
In a study that has not yet undergone peer review, researchers used a climate model to estimate the likelihood that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is already committed to collapse. If the planet continues to warm in line with existing models and Greenland’s ice melts accordingly—a major driver of changes in the circulation—the probability of collapse by 2100 is around 10 percent. Under a so-called pessimistic scenario, in which even more fossil fuels are burned, however, the likelihood rises to 80 percent and, under some conditions, even to 100 percent, the researchers said.
The Gulf Stream has slowed significantly. A study suggests that a collapse could occur within a few decades (in Czech)
The authors did not attempt to determine when the AMOC would collapse, but rather when it would reach a point at which its collapse became unavoidable. They tested the model using hundreds of simulations, which showed that even if global greenhouse gas emissions had stopped rising last year, the probability of collapse would still be around the aforementioned 10 percent.
“Our analysis shows that there is a greater than 10 percent chance of collapse, regardless of the pace of any feasible future mitigation efforts, with the probability rising sharply if emissions continue,” the authors warn in a report released alongside the study.
This study did not answer the question of whether the AMOC will collapse, as its scope was too limited to do so. One weakness is that it relies on a single model, meaning its results cannot be considered conclusive. They do, however, highlight the vulnerability of this system of ocean circulation, which is particularly important for Europe because it carries heat towards the continent. The research adds further pieces to the scientific puzzle surrounding the AMOC. In recent months, a growing number of studies have concluded that a collapse, or at least a severe slowdown, is increasingly likely.
The Gulf Stream is very stable. New research suggests it is unlikely to collapse (in Czech)
In any case, there is still no scientific consensus on whether anything will happen. However, scientists on both the optimistic and pessimistic sides agree that the phenomenon must continue to be closely monitored, not least because of its potential impact on a large part of the world.
If the AMOC were to shut down, current models suggest it would trigger global climate changes with far-reaching effects that would vary across different parts of the world. Sea levels would rise along the east coast of the United States, while average temperatures in northern Europe could fall by between five and fifteen degrees Celsius. For Czechia, this scenario would mean colder winters and drier summers. The disruption of this stable system would also alter patterns of extreme weather, including stronger storms and a shift in the tropical rain belt.
Estimates of the impact of changes to the AMOC were also provided by a study published the year before last, the results of which the researchers visualised on a map showing various scenarios for future developments. You can find it here.
Link to the study (in English)
An article written by Tomáš Karlík (CT), initially published on 12 July 2026, 10:00 (CEST)