With NATO’s principal powers, such as the United States, UK and France, now refocusing attention on their interests in the Middle East, Stanisław Koziej, a retired brigadier general and former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau (BBN), warned of a potential shift away from eastern Europe that he said Poland and its neighbours cannot ignore.
Speaking to Poland's PAP news agency last week, Koziej warned that a prolonged Israeli-Iranian conflict could pull American focus away from Europe, compounding the strategic distraction already posed by China and the Indo-Pacific.
"If the US becomes directly involved in the Middle East, it would represent a second powerful pull away from Europe," he said.
Although concerns over the US commitment to NATO have lessened since Donald Trump’s early presidency, Koziej emphasised that the current geopolitical landscape presents new risks.
To address them, he said, Europe must present two clear priorities at the upcoming summit: increased investment in its own security and shared responsibility, and a firm expectation that Washington will not leave its allies facing uncertainty.
Koziej argued that if these goals are reflected in the final summit statement, the gathering could be considered a success, despite the dual pressures of continued Russian aggression and growing instability in the Middle East.
While he does not believe the Iran-Israel crisis should dominate the agenda, Koziej said it will inevitably feature as a strategic challenge alongside Russia’s threat to NATO’s eastern flank.
He added that the Middle East conflict, though dangerous, might also prompt a renewed sense of cohesion within NATO, similar to the alliance’s reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP