Speaking in an interview with state news agency PAP, Mateusz Łakomy pointed to the latest data from the Statistics Poland agency (GUS), which show that just 19,500 children were born in May.
This marks yet another consecutive month with fewer than 20,000 births, a level that Łakomy said now appears to be permanent.
Between January and May, 96,000 children were born in Poland, nearly 10 percent fewer than in the same period last year.
"The decline in the number of births is very rapid," he said.
'Growing mismatch in the partner market'
Łakomy, a member of the European Association for Population Studies and author of a major book on Poland's demographics, argued that the primary cause of the low fertility rate was a "growing mismatch in the partner market," especially in terms of education.
“A significantly higher percentage of women have higher education degrees compared to men,” he explained. “Education is one of the main determinants of what we call socioeconomic status. This includes social respect, access to resources, income, and occupation.”
Across Europe, women are more likely than men to obtain higher education, and Poland reflects this trend with an even sharper gender gap.
In Poland, 56 percent of women aged 25 to 34 hold a university degree, compared to 37 percent of men in the same age group. Women also make up the majority of students at Polish universities and are more likely to earn academic titles.
Women prefer partners with higher status
Łakomy noted that people typically form relationships with others of similar socioeconomic status, and that many women continue to prefer partners with a slightly higher status.
“A man with more access to resources may offer a woman a greater sense of security,” he said. “That sense of security often makes her more likely to decide to have a child.”
Surplus of women in major cities
Geography also plays a role. Many young women move to large university cities such as Warsaw, Kraków and Poznań, leading to a demographic imbalance and surplus of women in these urban centers.
The trend towards negative population growth has become clear, however, whether in the cities or the villages.
According to GUS, until 2018, Poland's cities experienced a natural population decline, while rural areas saw a slight natural increase. Since 2019, however, both urban and rural areas have been recording a natural population decline.
Polish women are having fewer children, and they are having them later in life, while the average age of newlyweds has risen by about six years since the start of the century.
Łakomy said that earlier parenthood correlates with a higher likelihood of having more children. However, precarious employment is a major obstacle.
“Many young Poles work on fixed-term contracts, and it is very difficult for them to decide to have a child,” he said. “For example, if a woman becomes pregnant at the wrong moment, she may not be eligible for maternity benefits.”
He dismissed simplistic explanations that reduce Poland’s demographic problems to just economics or culture. “The range of factors influencing fertility is much broader,” he said.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP