“The EU is swapping one dependency for another,” said Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), a co-author of the report Europe’s Selective Blindness on Gas. The joint study by NUPI, the Clingendael Institute, and Ecologic Institute found that by 2025, American LNG made up over half of the EU’s total LNG imports—up 61% year-on-year and 485% compared to 2019.
Szulecki said the shift intensified in 2025 after then-President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on Europe. Boosting U.S. LNG imports became a political concession, leading Brussels to pledge a USD 750 billion purchase agreement, though no fixed pricing was set.
“American gas has become a negotiating currency,” Szulecki noted.
The report also warns that U.S. LNG often fails to meet EU environmental standards, particularly regarding full emissions reporting across the supply chain. “Washington would like the EU to overlook the ecological parameters of the gas it sells,” Szulecki said, calling the situation incompatible with EU climate goals.
Adding to the uncertainty is volatile pricing. Much of the American LNG sold to Europe lands on spot markets, driving unpredictable wholesale gas and electricity prices.
While the European Parliament has supported regulation to move away from Russian energy, authors of the report argue the current diversification strategy is flawed.
“True energy security doesn’t come from replacing one dominant supplier with another,” the report concludes. “It requires accelerating renewable development and phasing out fossil fuel imports.”
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Joergensen echoed the concerns, warning Wednesday that dependence on U.S. gas is becoming a growing worry within the bloc, especially in light of shifting geopolitics following the Greenland crisis.
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Source: PAP, Clingendael