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Chronic diseases could reduce Poland's GDP by 3.65% annually: study

13.10.2026 23:30
Cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes could reduce Poland's GDP by an average of 3.65 percent annually through 2050, mainly because of lower workforce participation and worker productivity, according to a study by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a Warsaw-based think tank.
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Pixabay LicenseImage by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

In 2023, the three diseases affected about 1.4 billion people worldwide, the analysis said, citing data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a US research centre at the University of Washington in Seattle.

The analysts, citing studies by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), said reduced workforce participation and lower worker productivity account for between 83 and 90 percent of the total economic burden of the diseases in European Union countries.

Healthcare spending accounts for the remaining 10 to 17 percent.

Chronic diseases increase the risk of premature death and forced withdrawal from the labour market, resulting in the loss of skilled workers and forcing some patients to rely on disability benefits, the analysts said.

Those who remain employed are more likely to take sick leave or work at reduced productivity.

According to OECD projections, cardiovascular disease, COPD and diabetes could cost EU countries nearly 3 percent of potential gross domestic product annually by 2050. The estimates cover only losses in the labour market.

Poland is more exposed to the economic impact than the EU average, the analysts said.

In Poland, cardiovascular diseases could reduce potential GDP by an average of 1.26 percent annually. COPD could account for a 1.25-percent decline, while diabetes could reduce potential GDP by 1.14 percent, the study found.

Combined, the three diseases could reduce Poland’s potential GDP by an average of 3.65 percent annually, according to the study.

The analysts said improvements in population health could generate direct savings for public coffers by reducing the incidence of disease and the need for prolonged and costly treatment. The benefits would vary by disease.

Reducing the costs of treating diabetes and COPD would result in net savings for public finances, according to the analysis.

For cardiovascular diseases, effective prevention could also extend life expectancy. The resulting additional spending on social benefits, including longer pension payments, would be lower than the medical savings achieved, the analysts said.

(gs)

Source: PAP, medonet.pl