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Three years on, Poland’s governing coalition faces electoral test as allies splinter

15.10.2026 23:00
Three years after Poland’s 2023 election, Donald Tusk’s governing coalition faces fractured alliances and weak poll ratings among its smaller partners ahead of next year's vote.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.Photo: PAP/Piotr Nowak

The October 15, 2023 election ended eight years of rule by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Although PiS won the most votes, it failed to secure a parliamentary majority.

Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition joined forces with the Third Way alliance, comprising Poland 2050 and the Polish People's Party (PSL), and the New Left. His government took office on December 13, 2023.

Three years after the election, the coalition remains in power, but its internal structure has changed considerably.

The Third Way alliance collapsed in June last year when the PSL ended its electoral partnership with Poland 2050. Both parties remained in government.

Poland 2050 subsequently suffered its own split.

In February, lawmakers associated with Climate Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska established a separate parliamentary group, later forming the Centre Union party. They have continued to support Tusk's government.

The divisions have left the coalition facing a difficult electoral calculation.

An October survey by pollster CBOS put the Civic Coalition in first place with 28.6 percent support. Its smaller governing partners all fell below the 5 percent threshold required for individual parties to enter parliament.

The New Left polled at 3 percent, the PSL at 2.8 percent, Poland 2050 at 1.2 percent and the Centre Union at just 0.4 percent.

The figures have raised questions about whether the parties can afford to contest the 2027 parliamentary election separately or will need to form joint electoral lists.

The government can point to several achievements since taking office.

It secured the release of European Union recovery funds previously held up over rule-of-law concerns, raised teachers’ salaries and restored public funding for in-vitro fertilization.

It also introduced the Active Parent program, which provides financial assistance with childcare, and new pension arrangements allowing surviving spouses to combine benefits.

Defense spending has increased, while Poland negotiated access to the largest loan allocation under the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defense financing program.

Other promises have proved harder to deliver. Differences between coalition partners have delayed legislation on civil partnerships and efforts to liberalize Poland’s restrictive abortion laws.

Tusk has also faced growing resistance from President Karol Nawrocki, who defeated Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in the 2025 presidential election.

Backed by PiS, Nawrocki has vetoed dozens of government bills, including legislation in March intended to implement the EU’s SAFE defense loan program.

The government itself underwent a major reshuffle in July 2025, when Radosław Sikorski became a third deputy prime minister while retaining the foreign affairs portfolio.

Waldemar Żurek replaced Adam Bodnar as justice minister, alongside changes to several other ministries.

In November 2025, Poland 2050 leader Szymon Hołownia stepped down as Speaker of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, under the original coalition agreement.

He was succeeded by New Left leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty.

Despite the political upheavals, Tusk has repeatedly insisted that the parliamentary majority remains secure.

With a year remaining before the next general election, however, the governing parties have yet to agree on how they will contest it.

For Tusk, whose Civic Coalition continues to lead in the polls, the immediate challenge is to prevent the electoral weakness of his smaller partners from costing him a parliamentary majority.

(rt/gs) 

Source: PAP