If right-wing parties were to contest an election as a single United Right bloc, they would win 46.6 percent of the vote, according to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska published on Saturday. A joint list of parties comprising the governing coalition would receive 41.3 percent support.
The survey examined a scenario involving a contest between two broad political blocs amid ongoing discussions about possible consolidation of Poland's political landscape.
Respondents were asked how they would vote if the main political forces competed under unified electoral banners.
According to the poll, the United Right bloc, consisting of Law and Justice (PiS), the Development Plus group, Confederation, and Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, would secure the largest share of the vote, with 46.6 percent support.
Second place went to the so-called October 15 Coalition, a joint list comprising Civic Coalition (KO), the Polish People's Party (PSL), Poland 2050, and the New Left, with 41.3 percent support.
Wirtualna Polska reported that the Razem party, running independently, would receive 5.8 percent of the vote, exceeding the electoral threshold. A further 6.3 percent of respondents selected "Don't know/Hard to say."
A seat projection based on a model developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University indicates that the broad right-wing bloc would win 242 seats, giving it an outright majority in the 460-member Sejm.
Under the same model, the October 15 Coalition would secure 212 seats, while Razem would win six.
"In this scenario, the October 15 Coalition and Razem would hold a combined 218 seats, 13 short of the majority required to form a government," Wirtualna Polska noted.
The survey was conducted between November 6 and 9, 2026, using a mixed-mode methodology combining online interviews (CAWI) and computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
(pu)
Source: PAP