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Economist backs liberal candidate in Poland’s run-off, warns Europe risks losing ‘source of dynamism’

23.05.2025 09:15
British weekly The Economist has thrown its weight behind liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of Poland’s 1 June presidential run-off, arguing that a victory for his nationalist rival Karol Nawrocki would diminish both Poland’s and Europe’s influence.
Warsaws liberal mayor and presidential candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski.
Warsaw's liberal mayor and presidential candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski.PAP/Paweł Topolski

The magazine’s latest edition carries a red-and-white cover – the colors of Poland’s flag – headlined “How Poland can keep its place at the heart of Europe”. A strapline reads: “If it turns inward, the country and continent will lose out.”

In an editorial, the 181-year-old title hails Poland as “Europe’s most overlooked military and economic power”, noting that its army is larger than those of Britain, France or Germany and that living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are “about to eclipse Japan’s”.

The Economist says Poland’s rapid rise stems from three decades of EU integration and sound economic management, with GDP per capita more than trebling since 1995 and the country avoiding recession except during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It predicts that Warsaw will benefit further when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unleashes new infrastructure and defense spending.

Poland now fields the fourth-largest military in Europe after Russia, Ukraine and Turkey and plans to raise defense spending above 5% of GDP by 2026. That, the weekly argues, has catapulted Warsaw into an informal “four musketeers” security group alongside Britain, France and Germany.

The endorsement warns that a Nawrocki presidency would likely see the country’s conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party use the largely ceremonial office to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU agenda and stage a comeback in the 2027 parliamentary election.

“Were Mr Nawrocki to win the second round, both Poland and Europe would suffer,” the article says, adding that Europe would “lose a source of dynamism” while Poland would risk surrendering its hard-won central role.

By contrast, a Trzaskowski win “would make EU co-operation easier and Poland’s influence would grow further”, allowing Warsaw to champion support for Ukraine and deterrence against Russia, the magazine concludes.

(jh)

Source: The Economist, PAP