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Polish FM warns Russia may stage false-flag attack as it loses ground in Ukraine

16.07.2026 11:30
Russia could be preparing a false-flag provocation using Ukrainian drones to justify further aggression, Poland's top diplomat has warned, arguing that the Kremlin's desperation as it loses ground makes such a scheme increasingly plausible.
Polands top diplomat Radosław Sikorski.
Poland's top diplomat Radosław Sikorski.PAP/Wiktor Dąbkowski

Speaking on Tuesday at a public forum on security and transatlantic ties at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library near Los Angeles, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski laid out the scenario in blunt terms.


He noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin said roughly a month ago that Moscow would respond if a NATO country attacked it first.

Sikorski said that comment fuels suspicion Putin may be plotting to use captured or repurposed Ukrainian drones to strike either a NATO member or Russia itself, then use the resulting "attack" as justification to retaliate.

"This is the kind of thing he might plan, because he is desperate and losing," he said.

That warning came at the start of Sikorski's multi-day California trip and amid a broader assessment of the Russian threat.

Sikorski argued that Moscow simply lacks the military capacity to invade a Western country so long as Ukraine keeps fighting effectively—but he cautioned that conventional invasion is not the only danger.

He pointed to what he said was a decade-long Russian hybrid war against the West that plays out daily through cyberattacks and election interference, including Kremlin support for both far-right and far-left movements across Europe.

On Ukraine and Germany: 'We have moved to leave past issues in the past'

Sikorski was asked about Poland's relations with Germany and Ukraine and offered a broader reflection on neighbors with complicated histories.

"When it comes to neighbors like Germany or Ukraine, we have moved to leave past issues in the past," he said, adding that overcoming history matters more than being defined by it.

He framed Poland's support for Kyiv in existential terms for the wider continent. "Today we are allies of Germany, and we also want to be allies of Ukraine, because it isn't only defending itself," he said. "If Putin succeeded in conquering Ukraine, all of Europe would find itself in serious trouble."

Sikorski closed by weighing in on Ukraine funding debates in Washington, expressing hope that legislation drafted by US Senator Lindsey Graham—who died last Saturday—would ultimately pass.

He said the bill was designed to establish a new assistance fund for Kyiv, and drew a contrast with the current burden-sharing arrangement. Europe, he said, has spent the last year-and-a-half covering the basic costs of running the Ukrainian state, from pensions to civil servant salaries, while Washington has not funded those kinds of expenses, even as European countries continue buying American military equipment.

"Senator Graham wanted to provide greater assistance, and I hope his memory will be honored and this legislation will be passed," Sikorski said.

(jh)

Source: PAP