"Predictions of a new wave of individual terrorism in Poland may be coming true" - said Grzegorz Małecki, a retired Polish colonel, diplomat, and former head of the Foreign Intelligence Agency, commenting on Saturday's mass shooting in central Kraków in which six people were killed.
In the expert's opinion, the tragedy should be viewed not only as an isolated incident of violence, but also in the broader context of the changing nature of terrorist threats. Małecki emphasized that independent radicalization under the influence of Internet propaganda and social tension could become one of the key challenges for Poland's security.
According to the former head of the Polish Foreign Intelligence Agency, more than ten years ago Polish security experts already warned about the possible emergence of the so-called "fifth wave of terrorism" - attacks carried out by "lone wolf" perpetrators, without direct organizational support of terrorist groups.
"It is the so-called individual terrorism, terrorism of loners. These are independent actions, not organized by groups of individuals. Such actions can have a wide variety of ideological foundations or motivations, not necessarily related to a specific ideological trend"
- the expert explained. His assessment lines up with numerous recent reports about the growing numbers of young males drifting towards the so-called nihilistic violent extremism (NVE). The term is used to refer to violence lacking ideological grounds - instead being motivated by a misanthropic or nihilistic worldview, as well as generalized hatred for society.
Despite lacking a firm structure, NVE is closely associated with online groups and subcultures such as 764, No Lives Matter, The Com and the True Crime Community. Those, in turn, are reported to be strongly infiltrated by various agents of influence, who seek disturbed youth they can push to violent acts - for example to cause chaos in a given country and undermine people's trust in the current government.
It is also worth noting that, despite nihilistic violent extremism's characterization as being unmotivated by genuine ideology, groups or individuals falling under this umbrella have been known to adopt the aesthetics or tactics of, or have sympathies for, other extremist ideologies - like neo-Nazism. The NVE is also closely associated with misogyny and sexual abuse of women, as it often germinates in the digital soil of "incel" (involuntary celibacy) online communities.
The concept of waves of terrorism is used in international studies to explain changes in the motives, ideology, and methods of terrorist activity. American political scientist David Rapoport identified four main waves of modern terrorism: anarchist, anti-colonial, new left, and religious. They spanned different historical periods, starting from the late 19th century.
The fifth wave remains a subject of scholarly debate. Among its possible characteristics, researchers have cited the decentralization of violence, the radicalization of individuals, and the spread of extremist ideas through digital communications.
Unlike classic terrorist organizations, such perpetrators may not have leaders, membership, or direct contacts with radical groups. However, this does not mean that they operate in complete ideological isolation: their views may be influenced by online communities, propaganda, and examples of previous attacks.
According to Grzegorz Małecki, self-radicalization is one of the most characteristic features of this threat.
"In this case, the so-called individual terrorism dominates, that is, the terrorism of people who radicalize themselves. Of course, they rely on certain knowledge, information, and certain incentives that influence the radicalization process, in particular through various sources on the Internet"
- the expert noted.
The former head of the Polish Intelligence Agency also commented on the possible connection between the geopolitical situation, in particular the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine just beyond Poland's eastern border, and the radicalization of individuals:
"In this particular case, there is nothing to suggest that it had any connection to the war in Ukraine. At the same time, of course, the increasing level of anxiety, fears and a certain inability to accept the reality in which we live may be among the factors that provoke or exacerbate this type of behavior"
- the expert said. In the light of this it is worth mentioning, though, that the investigation into the assailant's actions and relations preceding the attack have just begun - and some online interactions are virtually impossible to recreate. Meanwhile, in the case of youth on the verge of a violent breakdown, one small well-directed push might be all that it takes to get someone over the edge...
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Source: PRdU