The late Wednesday crash reportedly involved Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, with nine other individuals. Coverage in Russia's mainstream media remains limited, with pro-Kremlin outlets only briefly mentioning the incident. State agency TASS merely listed passengers, while Belarus' Belta last updated on Prigozhin the prior night.
US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) speculates Russian President Vladimir Putin may have ordered the plane's downing unless contrary evidence appears. The analysis connects recent tensions between Prigozhin's Wagner Group and Russia's Defense Ministry, suggesting a fallout leading to Prigozhin's potential assassination. The defense ministry's push to form alternative private military groups in regions like Africa and the Middle East has seen Wagner members transitioning for better pay.
ISW also linked Andrei Avryanov, deputy head of Russia's GRU military intelligence, as a probable obstacle to Wagner's African activities and a participant in the 2018 Skripal poisoning case in the UK.
For Belarusian autocrat Lukashenko, Prigozhin's potential assassination may symbolize diminishing negotiation power with the Kremlin and an overt integration push between Belarus and Russia, the American analysts claimed.
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Source: PAP, RMF FM