Małgorzata Bonikowska, head of the Centre for International Relations Foundation (CSM), a Warsaw-based think tank, has argued the world is now entering "an era of brutal rivalry" among major powers for spheres of influence, resources and technological dominance.
Bonikowska said the US military operation in Venezuela, which ended with President Nicolás Maduro in US custody, should be a wake-up call for the European Union.
She told Poland's PAP news agency that the episode points to a broader shift away from a rules-based international order.
"The era of a multilateral world, with the United States as the state guarding a global order based on international law and international institutions, has ended," she said.
In her assessment, Washington has drawn a line around its own region. She said the Venezuela operation was meant to push Russia and China out of the country and send a message that the United States "will use any means" it deems necessary to maintain primacy in its sphere of influence.
Bonikowska said Europe risks being sidelined.
"They take China into account, they take Russia into account, but they do not take Europe into account," she said, arguing the continent now needs to decide whether it can act as a power in its own right.
Two scenarios
She set out two scenarios. In the first, Europe reorganises around the European Union to become what she called a "Europe of Power," with strength in four areas she described as essential for any major power: the economy, technology, control of key resources, and the military.
In the second, Europe becomes a sphere of influence for another power, because in what she described as a renewed "concert of powers," neutrality is increasingly hard to sustain.
Bonikowska said Poland understands the danger because of its history, located as it is, between Germany and Russia.
She added that for Western Europe the prospect is more psychologically difficult to grasp, arguing it has not been anyone’s sphere of influence "for 400 years."
To avoid strategic dependence, she said Europe should keep backing Ukraine, increase weapons production, adjust spending priorities and deepen cooperation in areas that shape power, especially defence, technology and access to raw materials.
She argued this does not require turning the European Union into a single superstate, but could mean a looser "confederation," with stronger common management in the most critical areas and fewer external dependencies.
Bonikowska also criticised what she described as Europe’s weakened capacity for strategic governance, calling for reforms to restore the ability to make long-term decisions.
She suggested Europe should consider solutions modelled on ancient Greece, where a wartime strategos was appointed with special powers, adding that this "does not have to be one person."
Małgorzata Bonikowska. Photo: Polish Radio/PR24
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP