Axios cited six developments pointing to rising risk. Foremost is the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. administrations have repeatedly vowed to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, while Trump has pushed for a new nuclear deal since returning to the White House, even as he and allies have at times hinted at regime change.
The outlet reported that Trump came close to ordering strikes in early January after Iranian authorities killed thousands of protesters. He delayed in part because the U.S. military presence in the region was smaller than during last year’s 12-day conflict. Since then, Trump has resumed nuclear talks while also deploying warships and fighter jets to the Persian Gulf.
Axios noted that after repeated threats against Tehran and the deployment of two aircraft carriers, Trump has created global expectations that he would strike Iran if talks fail. With no signs of a breakthrough and given Trump’s political style, backing down now appears unlikely, the report said.
Pressure from Israel was cited as another factor. According to Axios, Israeli officials are preparing for the possibility of war within days and favor a large-scale operation.
The report also pointed to oil market conditions as a possible strategic opening. Global supplies are ample, prices relatively low and demand growth moderate, while Iran’s capacity to disrupt markets is weakened. Any price spike following an attack would likely be limited, Axios said.
Finally, the outlet cited perceptions of weakness within Iran’s leadership after mass protests and Israeli and U.S. strikes last year. While Iran would retaliate if attacked, U.S. and Israeli officials may believe its response would now be more restrained than in the future.
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Source: PAP, Axios