Katarzyna Pisarska, a political scientist and head of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, a Warsaw-based foreign policy and security think tank, said the fighting risks delaying weapons deliveries to Ukraine at a moment when Kyiv is struggling to defend itself against Russia's attacks.
Katarzyna Pisarska. Photo: PR24/MS
She pointed in particular to Patriot air-defense systems, a US-made missile battery used to intercept aircraft and ballistic missiles.
“Under an escalation, US ammunition resources, including for Patriot batteries, shrink very quickly and are very difficult to rebuild,” Pisarska said.
She added that this could move Ukraine lower on the list of priorities for acquiring the systems, which she said are currently being purchased by European countries from the United States within a NATO framework.
Pisarska said the strikes by Israel and the United States, which she described as targeting Iran’s nuclear and military sites as well as its leadership, ran against Russia’s interests.
She argued, however, that a prolonged conflict could still benefit Moscow by boosting Russia’s budget through higher global energy prices.
“If demand rises, many consumers will turn again toward Russia,” she said, adding that Russian revenue from fossil fuels had been falling in recent months as some secondary sanctions began to take effect and prices eased.
Secondary sanctions are penalties aimed at third parties that do business with a sanctioned country.
Pisarska said Iran now plays a smaller role in Russia’s war effort than it did at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Tehran provided technology linked to Shahed drones.
She said Russia now produces its own improved versions, largely using Chinese components, meaning that even a rupture in Iran-Russia ties would be unlikely to have a major immediate military impact on Moscow.
Over the longer term, she said, Ukraine would feel the consequences more acutely.
The comments came as hostilities intensified over the weekend. Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, and Iran responded with attacks on Israel and US bases in the region.
US President Donald Trump said 48 senior Iranian officials had been killed in the operation.
Iranian authorities confirmed on Sunday that the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had died.
Iran also carried out strikes across parts of the Gulf, including attacks reported on airports in Abu Dhabi, Dubaiand Kuwait, and on targets in several countries hosting US forces.
Israel’s military said it had called up 100,000 reservists for the operation.
The escalation has also focused attention on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and a key route for global energy shipments.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that vessels were not permitted to enter the strait, and tanker traffic was reported to be stalled on both sides, with hundreds of ships unable to continue their journeys.
Pisarska said it was too early to judge how the conflict would develop.
She said the Trump administration appeared to want a short campaign, while Iran was working to preserve the regime.
She added that expectations of major protests were unrealistic, citing the brutal suppression of demonstrations in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026, with tens of thousands of protesters dead and wounded, and the killing or imprisonment of protest leaders.
She said reactions inside Iran could also diverge sharply between the capital and smaller towns, where the death of the supreme leader may be seen as a tragedy that consolidates conservative support.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP
Click on the audio player above for a report by Marcin Matuszewski.