Polls show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling Civil Contract party leading, backed by up to 32% of voters, with the pro-Russian Strong Armenia party trailing in second place with up to 11%.
Pashinyan has moved Armenia closer to the West since coming to power in 2018, and away from traditional patron Russia, which has provoked Moscow's ire in the lead-up to the vote.
Speaking to Polish Radio External Service, Areg Kochinyan, head of the Armenian Council think tank, said Russia had significantly stepped up its efforts to influence Armenia’s political landscape as the country moved closer to the election.
According to the analyst, the interference extends beyond disinformation campaigns and manipulation of the information space as Moscow has also intensified economic pressure on Yerevan, effectively launching what some observers describe as a trade war.
“Russia is increasingly restricting the imports of Armenian goods to Russia by expanding the list of products barred from entering the Russian market”, Kochinyan argued.
He said Moscow's trade war includes a particularly sensitive issue for his country: “They are threatening to reduce energy supplies as most of natural gas, petroleum and diesel fuel come from Russia.”
GDP per capita has doubled under Pashinyan, a journalist and activist turned politician.
However, the prime minister has faced a wave of criticism from the opposition and some sections of the public who have accused him of capitulating to Azerbaijan, particularly since the 2023 war.
Kochinyan stresses that the outcome of Sunday’s election could prove decisive for the country's future.
“If Pashinyan remains in power, Armenia is expected to continue its gradual rapprochement with the European Union and pursue efforts to normalise relations with both Turkey and Azerbaijan”, he said.
“If pro-Russian forces regain influence, however, that would mean a return to the country's previous regime, characterised by corruption and close alignment with Moscow”, Kochinyan noted.
Such a shift could also complicate relations with neighboring states and undermine ongoing regional reconciliation efforts, he added.
However, critics and rights groups have accused Pashinyan of authoritarianism after many of his opponents have been jailed in recent years.
A spate of arrests in the lead-up to the vote has targeted the opposition, including parliamentary candidates for the Strong Armenia party.
Some 2.48 million people are registered to vote in the landlocked country of 3 million.
(mo)
Source: Polish Radio External Service, Reuters