The Warsaw-based Sobieski Institute think tank said in a new report that Britain had avoided the economic collapse predicted by some critics of Brexit, but had moved onto a permanently weaker growth path since the 2016 referendum.
'A shrinking power'
The report, titled "A Shrinking Power: Ten Years After the Brexit Referendum," says Britain’s economy is smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the European Union.
It estimates that the British state is losing between GBP 75 billion and GBP 100 billion a year in revenue, a sum comparable to the country’s annual defense budget.
The report also says British gross domestic product per capita is 6 to 8 percent lower than it would otherwise have been.
Business investment is estimated to be 12 to 18 percent lower, which the authors say means fewer factories, less new technology and weaker prospects for long-term growth.
The report recommends that Poland make its partnership with Britain one of the pillars of its European policy. It also calls for Warsaw and London to work together to keep Western attention focused on Central and Eastern Europe and to strengthen transatlantic ties.
The report was compiled by Sobieski Institute experts in cooperation with Deloitte and Polish and British authors from academic, analytical and policy circles.
'A story of gradual weakening'
British voters chose to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016 by 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. Brexit supporters argued that leaving the bloc would allow Britain to regain control over its laws, borders and economic policy.
Britain formally left the EU in 2020.
"Brexit was not a story of collapse, but a story of gradual weakening," said Arkady Rzegocki, a co-author of the report.
"Britain did not lose its statehood or strategic importance, but became an economically more shrunken power," he added. "The British decade shows that in the 21st century formal sovereignty is no substitute for access to the largest markets and international networks of cooperation."
Arkady Rzegocki. Photo: Polish Radio/PR24
The report argues that the main economic lesson of Brexit is that the benefits of European integration cannot be reduced to EU funding. It says growth also depends on access to the EU single market, which allows companies to trade across member states under shared rules.
The authors say that lesson is relevant for Poland, where public debate about EU membership often focuses on money received from the bloc’s budget.
As Poland becomes wealthier, its balance of payments into and out of the EU budget is expected to change. The report says Britain’s experience shows that access to markets, investment and capital may matter more than direct transfers.
Rzegocki also pointed to an unexpected political effect of the past decade. He said Polish-British relations had become “one of the closest strategic partnerships in Europe,” based on a shared assessment of security threats, defense cooperation and industrial ties.
He added that Britain increasingly sees Poland as "a key partner and co-creator of the continent’s security," rather than mainly as a source of migration.
(rt/gs)
Source: pap-mediaroom.pl, sobieski.org.pl