Prof. Katarzyna Zyśk of the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies said Russia was likely to continue testing NATO's defenses while seeking to avoid triggering a direct military confrontation with the alliance.
Her assessment comes after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia could be preparing for a further escalation of tensions in the region. Speaking in late August, Tusk said Poland "must be prepared for various scenarios" and that the next seven to eight months would be critical. He repeated the warning during commemorations marking the 87th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II at Westerplatte.
Zyśk identified four possible scenarios for how the situation could develop. The most likely, she said, was continued hybrid escalation, including more radical provocations, the use of drones or aircraft to test NATO air defenses, flights without transponders near NATO airspace, cyberattacks and sabotage of critical infrastructure.
A second possibility would be a limited military incident in a NATO country, which Russia could deny under the principle of "plausible deniability."
The Baltic states and the Suwałki Gap could be seen as potential targets, Zyśk said. However, she noted that Russia might avoid these areas because NATO has long identified them as vulnerable and has prepared for possible attacks there.
Russia, she said, would seek actions that offered the greatest political, military and economic benefit without imposing unacceptable costs.
The least-discussed scenario, according to Zyśk, is that effective deterrence prevents Russia from carrying out more aggressive plans.
Tusk's public warnings that Poland must prepare for different scenarios are themselves part of deterrence, she said, sending Moscow a message that NATO countries are aware of the risks and prepared to respond.
Asked where NATO may be most vulnerable, Zyśk pointed to the Baltic region, the Arctic and the High North.
A full-scale war between Russia and NATO remains the least likely scenario, Zyśk said. However, she warned that the risk would increase if Moscow came to believe that the alliance lacked unity or determination.
(aj)
SOURCE: PAP