Polls show the left-wing opposition, led by the Social Democrats, narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's centre-right coalition.
An average of 11 recent surveys gives the opposition bloc 51.5% support to 46.4% for the government and its nationalist allies, the Sweden Democrats. A poll this week by Novus for TV4 put the gap at just 2.4 percentage points.
Foreign policy has barely featured in the campaign, which has focused on domestic, economic and climate issues.
But Social Democrat officials told the Polish Press Agency (PAP) that ties with Warsaw would not suffer if they take power, pledging to continue Sweden's main foreign policy direction, including an active role in the EU and NATO. Potential coalition partners, the Left Party and the Greens, opposed Sweden joining NATO but no longer call for leaving it.
The party is also expected to boost development aid without cutting support for Ukraine, and to revive a rights-focused foreign policy in the mould of its 2014 "feminist foreign policy". Green technology is likely to feature more heavily in trade policy. Media reports name former EU Commissioner Ylva Johansson and ex-minister Morgan Johansson as possible foreign minister picks.
Relations between the two countries have deepened significantly under Kristersson, formalised by a strategic partnership he signed with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in autumn 2024.
Defence cooperation has grown fastest. Poland bought Swedish submarines; Sweden bought Polish Piorun anti-aircraft missiles. Swedish jets patrolled Polish airspace last summer, while Polish paratroopers trained on the Swedish island of Gotland. Sweden has also taken a leading role in confronting Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea.
Business links are expanding too. More than 700 Swedish companies, including Ericsson and IKEA, operate in Poland, generating 0.5% of its GDP and employing 109,000 people. A record 65-company Swedish trade delegation accompanied King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia on a visit to Warsaw and Gdansk in March.
Sweden's trade minister, Benjamin Dousa, pressed Swedish firms to invest further in Poland at a business summit in Stockholm in November. He called himself the "most Polish minister" in government, noting his partner is Polish.
Whoever wins Sunday, Polish officials expect Sweden to remain a key regional ally.
(jh)
Source: PAP