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Sudan war spreads instability as drones and foreign backing deepen conflict: analyst

15.09.2026 09:30
Sudan’s civil war is spreading instability across the region as drone warfare, foreign support and mass displacement deepen the three-year conflict, according to a Polish analyst.
Map of the East Sudan campaign from 2023
Map of the East Sudan campaign from 2023Image: User:BorysMapping, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

One of the latest reported attacks came last Wednesday in Umm Rawaba, in North Kordofan state, where a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drone struck a courthouse during peak hours. The AFP news agency reported that 13 people were killed and 22 wounded.

The strike was part of a sharp increase in drone warfare. More than 1,000 people were killed in drone attacks during the first five months of 2026, according to a United Nations mission.

Both the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have used drones to hit targets far from the front lines, including hospitals, schools, markets and shelters for displaced people.

"Cheap drones are becoming a tool that allows certain stages of development to be skipped," said Filip Urbański, an Africa specialist at the University of Warsaw.

He told Poland's PAP news agency that African conflicts can adopt new technologies rapidly despite weak conventional infrastructure.

The war began in April 2023 after a power struggle between army commander Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo erupted into open fighting. The two had previously been allies and took part in the 2021 coup that ended Sudan’s transition toward civilian rule.

The army controls much of northern, eastern and central Sudan, while the RSF has its strongest position in the west, particularly in Darfur.

In October last year, the RSF captured El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, after a months-long siege. International organizations reported mass killings of civilians. The United Nations estimates that at least 6,000 people were killed in the city over three days.

The conflict has also drawn in foreign governments and military networks.

United Nations reporting has linked weapons, logistical support, training and foreign personnel for the RSF to networks involving the United Arab Emirates, Chad, Libya and Somalia.

A UN report said as many as 2,000 Colombian mercenaries may have helped operate and maintain drones and other advanced weapons.

The United Arab Emirates has denied providing military support to the RSF. Chad and Somalia have denied that their territories are being used for military operations.

Russian involvement

Sudan’s army maintains close relations with Egypt, Iran and Turkey. Egypt sees Sudan through concerns over its southern border, the Nile and its rivalry with Ethiopia, and supports Sudan’s territorial unity.

Russia also has interests in Sudan's mineral resources, Red Sea access and possible military infrastructure at Port Sudan. Russian structures previously linked to the Wagner mercenary group were involved in the country’s gold industry.

Urbański said foreign involvement was making a political settlement harder.

"The interests of other states are at stake, including rivalry with Iran, Russia and other regional actors," he said. "As a result, the logic of resolving the conflict loses out to short-term political gains."

Sudan lies between North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, while Port Sudan sits on maritime routes linking Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

'Enormous humanitarian crisis'

About 14 million people have been forced from their homes since the war began, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Around 9 million remain displaced within Sudan and 4.4 million have fled abroad, mainly to Egypt, Chad and other neighboring states.

"We are dealing with an enormous humanitarian crisis," Urbański said. “The situation is spreading across a region that is itself struggling with instability.”

Arms and human-smuggling routes across Sudan’s borders have added to instability in Libya, Chad and the Sahel.

The United Nations has called for stronger enforcement of the existing arms embargo on Darfur. A UN fact-finding mission has also urged the Security Council to extend the embargo to the whole of Sudan.

(rt/gs)

Source: PAP