"We all agree that a large-scale operation against NATO and against the Baltic states is not possible at the moment. Russia is fighting in Ukraine", Rinkēvičs said.
Latvian intelligence has detected no signs of a military build-up, he added.
"That could change in future […] But right now the clear message is that we do not expect any military operation against us", he said.
The picture looks different in the hybrid sphere, Rinkēvičs said. He pointed to sabotage, cyberattacks, information operations, and efforts to weaken public support for Ukraine, along with Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace over Latvia and other allied states.
"We agree that so-called hybrid actions are intensifying, that we need to cooperate to counter them", he said.
Pressed on whether intelligence points to a coming surge in such attacks, Rinkēvičs said only "assumptions and assessments" exist, declining to discuss specifics.
The warning came after talks in New York on Monday between the presidents of Poland and the three Baltic states, held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly's 81st session.
Leaders at the meeting agreed to deepen intelligence-sharing and expand joint military exercises between Baltic and Polish forces, Rinkēvičs said, describing current cooperation as already going "really well".
He also addressed Tuesday's EU decision to extend sanctions on Russia for 36 months while dropping oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the list. Latvia opposed removing the pair and abstained from the vote, he said, though he welcomed the longer renewal period.
"We will keep fighting for additional sanctions, additional individuals, additional companies. This is not the end", he said.
Rinkēvičs welcomed reports of a possible US troop transfer to Poland and a new permanent American base there, but said judgment should wait until Washington completes its review of forces in Europe.
Europe must take the lead on its own defence, he said, describing the continent as working "desperately" toward that goal.
"The message we should all take on board is that Europe's defence is Europe's responsibility", he said, adding that Poland, Latvia and other eastern flank states were leading the way on defence spending. "I hope the rest of Europe follows our lead".
(jh)
Source: PAP