The total already exceeds the record set in the 2024 presidential cycle, according to data from AdImpact. Presidential races are normally costlier than midterms.
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is again the leading sponsor, having spent more than USD 750 million, according to the latest available data. Smaller donors including former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg and George Soros back Democrats.
Much of the billionaire money goes not to party committees but to formally independent Super PACs, which can raise unlimited sums and are often controlled by the donors themselves. The law bars them from coordinating with candidates and parties.
The system stems from the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United v. FEC ruling, which also boosted “dark money” channelled through non-profits that need not disclose their donors.
“Most of the spending in these elections is not actually controlled by candidates, so it’s not they who really steer the message or campaign strategy. They are passengers, and it’s the funders who are driving the bus”, said Grasmick, a partner at Rising Tide Interactive, a major digital advertising firm working with Democrats.
“This raises questions about candidates’ accountability, especially if some of these billionaire-funded candidates win. Who will they feel obliged to? Whose interests will they represent?” she said.
New money, old rules
Grasmick said donors are spending more because Congress is about to decide how to regulate artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.
“Rules written over the next five years will set the course for the next 50”, she said.
AI, gambling and crypto companies are becoming major players, she said, splitting donations roughly equally between the parties to secure influence whoever wins. AI firms were especially active in Democratic primaries, backing moderates against left-wing supporters of tougher regulation.
Billionaires give on both sides, but Democrats benefit from a broad base of small donors, she said, while small Republican donations flow almost entirely to Donald Trump and his Super PAC. That matters because the law guarantees candidates and parties the lowest broadcast television rates.
Republicans outspend Democrats this year, but Grasmick said the effect on results is limited, as many races follow an arms-race logic.
“When one side sees the other’s advantage, it has to make it up. As a result, the final effect is small”, she said.
“Generally speaking, companies [funding campaigns] are less trying to decide the outcome and more trying to predict it and end up on the right side”, she said.
Outside money has also made the campaign more negative, she said, because independent committees can afford a harsher tone than candidates. Such ads work only when they tap concerns voters already hold, such as living costs, energy prices or data centres, and otherwise tend to provoke backlash.
Trump and the Senate
Grasmick said Trump’s “magic” has so far worked only when he himself is on the ballot. She said it was telling that the president is spending the campaign’s final week in strongly Republican states such as Mississippi, Texas and Kansas, though she acknowledged that mobilising his supporters in Texas and Kansas could produce unexpected results.
Trump’s unpopularity, particularly over the war with Iran and the resulting price rises, gives Democrats a significant advantage, she said. Polls show the party is also poorly regarded, but that need not hurt it at the ballot box because its candidates have long run as individuals rather than as party politicians.
“The old rule applies here: nobody likes Congress, but everyone likes their own congressman”, she said.
Despite polls suggesting the opposition could win both chambers, Grasmick said she does not expect Democrats to take the Senate, since nearly all the key races are in strongly Republican states. She is wary of polls, she said, because half of any poll is modelling the electorate, which is especially hard in Texas.
“I remember Democrats being sure they’d win in Texas in 2014. And in 2018. And in 2022. They didn’t win once, so in the end you lose hope”, she said.
On November 3, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators. Republicans control both chambers and hold 53 Senate seats.
(jh)
Source: PAP