Nearly all experts expect Republicans to lose their slim House of Representatives majority in the vote halfway through President Donald Trump’s second term. The Senate is the open question.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats are up for election, and the map favours Republicans, who hold the majority: 20 of the contests are in states that traditionally lean right. Democrats, who hold 47 seats, must defend all of them and gain four. In a 50-50 tie, Vice President J.D. Vance would cast the deciding vote as president of the Senate.
Polls suggest Democrats will probably flip one seat, in North Carolina. The rest of the fight is concentrated in seven states with narrow polling margins: Democratic-held Michigan and Republican-held Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and Texas. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP) show Democrats ahead in all but Iowa.
Michigan and Texas
The two races that have drawn the most media attention and donor money are in Michigan and Texas.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Republican congressman Mike Rogers by 5 points, according to polls included by RCP.
The campaign has been marked by controversy over El-Sayed’s Muslim faith and sharp criticism of Israel. Trump has called El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants, a jihadist, though he condemns terrorism. Vance suggested he was not a real American, though he was born in Michigan and is a US citizen. Democratic Representative Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed beat in the primary, endorsed Rogers late in the race, surprising party colleagues.
Support for Israel is a hotspot for the Michigan race. El-Sayed has repeatedly described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide and accused its government of committing war crimes and practising apartheid in the occupied West Bank. According to CBS News, he has called for an end to US military aid to Israel, arguing that American taxpayers’ money should instead fund domestic priorities. He has also questioned whether Israel should be considered a US ally, while advocating equal rights, dignity and self-determination for Israelis and Palestinians and expressing support for either a two-state or mutually agreed one-state solution. He has condemned Hamas’s October 7 attacks and antisemitism.
The Detroit News reported that Haley Stevens received substantial financial support from AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying organisation that seeks to influence US policy in support of Israel, and its donor network. AIPAC-related spending exceeded USD 5 million during her 2022 primary, including nearly USD 700,000 in bundled donations, with a further USD 334,000 bundled in early 2025. According to the Associated Press, AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, also spent millions supporting Stevens’ 2026 Senate campaign, with spending approaching USD 30 million.
Rogers’ campaign, according to the New York Times and the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, has also cultivated ties with AIPAC through fundraising events and donor support. AIPAC’s super PAC separately spent approximately USD 64,000 supporting Rogers in the 2026 Senate race.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, a former theology student and state legislator who advocates bridging political divides, leads by 2.6 percentage points in the RCP average. He faces Trump-backed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been dogged by corruption and personal scandals as well as an impeachment. A Talarico win would make him the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988.
Trump has devoted considerable attention to the race, calling Paxton the best attorney general in the country while also mocking his appearance. In published recordings of closed-door meetings, Paxton complained that Trump’s actions had only hurt his poll numbers.
Toss-ups, surprises?
Maine may be the hardest to call. Republican Susan Collins, 73, a leading moderate in her party, has held the seat for years in a state that usually favours Democrats. She faces Troy Jackson, a former state Senate Democratic leader and logger described as a populist, who entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew following allegations of sexual assault. Jackson leads by 2.8 points, but Democrats recall 2020, when polls underestimated Collins’s support by more than 10 percent. Late in the campaign, she secured tariff exemptions for some products in a state whose economy relies heavily on trade with Canada.
Iowa is seen as the tightest contest. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, seeking the seat vacated by Republican Joni Ernst, leads Democratic state legislator Josh Turek, a former US Paralympic basketball star, by 0.5 points. Trump’s tariffs and diesel prices have been central issues. Both candidates oppose Trump’s plan to import fuel from Russia and want a swift end to the war with Iran.
In Kansas, long a Republican stronghold, Senator Roger Marshall trails Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton by 3.6 points. Marshall’s troubles began with a New York Times report that he sued more than 700 former patients over unpaid bills, 81 of whom were later arrested. Hamilton, a conservative Democrat who leads the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, has focused on living costs and opposition to the war with Iran.
In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by an average of 1 point. The race has been overshadowed by a second Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher running as an independent, who the New York Times reported was encouraged by Democratic activists to run to confuse voters. Trump unsuccessfully sought a court order to halt certification of any Peltola win and said the ploy meant the election could not be considered fair.
In Ohio, which has shifted from swing state to reliably conservative, Democrat Sherrod Brown, a longtime senator known for backing trade unions, leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 2.7 points. Husted took the seat when Vance became vice president.
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Source: PAP, New York Times, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Associated Press, The Detroit News, CBS News