The Kremlin’s main focus will remain the war in Ukraine and, in official statements, confrontation with the West, particularly the United States and NATO. Russian authorities portray Western support for Kyiv as an existential threat and as undermining the goals of what Moscow calls its "special military operation", experts told Poland’s state news agency PAP.
That narrative will continue to underpin domestic mobilization, helping justify high military spending and recruitment, analysts say. More than 40% of Russia’s state budget is allocated to defense-related purposes, and Moscow plans to mobilize over 400,000 people in 2026, most of them for deployment in Ukraine, PAP reported.
Despite its hostile rhetoric, Russia sees value in maintaining contacts with Washington. "Moscow wants to preserve a degree of U.S. goodwill while creating the appearance of negotiations and maintaining pressure on Kyiv", said Filip Dąb-Mirowski, an analyst quoted by PAP.
He said Russia is likely to exploit tensions in U.S.–European relations to weaken support for Ukraine. Pawło Rad, an analyst of the Belarusian and Russian Studies Program at the non-governmental organization Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism, said talks with Washington also serve Moscow’s goal of presenting itself as an equal global power.
Analysts warn that Russia’s neighbors—including the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland—are likely to face continued provocations such as airspace violations, drone incidents, GPS disruptions, and damage to critical infrastructure.
"Nuclear arms control is expected to feature in Russia’s diplomacy, particularly negotiations over the New START treaty, which expires on Feb. 5, 2026. Moscow has signaled it could agree to an extension if a deal with Washington is reached".
Russia’s ties with China remain critical, analysts say, noting that Chinese economic and defense-sector support is key to sustaining Moscow’s war effort. Experts also expect Russia to seek new markets for energy exports while portraying itself to Washington as a counterweight to China.
Moscow is also likely to maintain or expand its military and political presence in the Middle East, including in Iran and Syria, and to continue building influence across Africa through diplomatic, economic and military means.
(aj)
SOURCE: PAP