Iranians, including large segments of the ruling elite and even supporters of the Islamic Republic, have never felt affection for Russia, and today they have even fewer reasons to do so.
Historically, Russia is associated in Iran with the Treaty of Turkmenchay, which entered Iranian political language as a synonym for humiliation.
Under that treaty, Iran lost control over the South Caucasus, where after World War I Bolshevik Russia created a state called Azerbaijan, laying claim to the historical region of Azerbaijan that had been part of Iran.
Taking advantage of chaos in Iran, the Bolsheviks attempted to seize power there, and from 1941 to 1946 the Soviet Union in fact occupied half of the country.
It is therefore unsurprising that the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, regarded the Soviet Union as just as much a “Great Satan” as the United States.
A real shift in relations with Russia came only more than a decade after his death, driven by Iran’s international isolation over its nuclear program.
Russia became a key beneficiary of sanctions, which eliminated a potential competitor in oil and gas markets—one that had been eager to trade with Europe, including Poland, especially after sanctions were imposed on Russia itself in 2014.
Russia’s image in Iran deteriorated further after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Iran’s leadership clung to the illusion of an alliance with Russia against the United States, but reality quickly intervened.
The Islamic Republic supplied Moscow with drones and received virtually nothing in return—most notably not the S-400 air defense systems or Su-35 fighter jets it had sought for years.
The regime’s frustration was compounded by Russia’s willingness to coordinate with Israel behind Iran’s back.
When war between Iran and Israel erupted, it became clear not only that Iran would receive no help from Russia, but also that Moscow had an interest in escalation—ideally one that would draw the United States into direct military involvement in Iran.
From time to time, hollow media stories surface about “breakthrough” Russian support for Iran, such as alleged deliveries of Iskander missiles. Their purpose is merely to raise tensions and push toward confrontation. Russia’s dream is for Iran to strike US forces in the region, forcing Washington into a response that could ultimately lead to an American invasion of Iran.
Moscow is not afraid of this scenario; it expects the result would be chaos and a deep US military entanglement, leaving Europe and the Pacific exposed to aggressive moves by Russia and China.
So far, there is little sign that Donald Trump believes the protests will succeed. If he did, he would be working to help assemble a broad opposition coalition capable of taking power during a transitional period and organizing elections.
Instead, Trump probably doubts that democracy in Iran is viable and would prefer to strike a deal with the current regime.
The United States must also recognize that installing the son of the last shah, Reza Pahlavi, in Tehran would not last long without sustained American backing.
The outcome of air strikes is equally uncertain.
Doubts remain about the effectiveness of last year’s US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities. Even if the United States succeeded in assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle and degrading part of Iran’s military potential, the question would remain: what next?
The regime could take desperate steps leading to unpredictable escalation, while the collapse of the Islamic Republic would embolden Kurdish and Ahwazi separatists, Baluchi jihadists, and ISIS, which also has a presence in Iran.
Who would control such a situation? Reza Pahlavi, whose life experience amounts largely to a luxurious existence in the United States funded by wealth taken out of Iran?
Trump is aware of these risks, which may explain his caution. Perhaps he is hoping that a regime terrified by the prospect of collapse will accept his offer and compromise with Washington.
That would, of course, be a defeat for Russia and China. But for Iranians protesting in the streets for genuine democracy, the blood they have already shed would have been in vain.