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Canada’s military considers scenarios for a hypothetical US invasion: report

21.01.2026 10:45
Canada’s armed forces have reportedly drawn up contingency scenarios for a hypothetical invasion by the United States, marking the first serious examination of such a possibility in a century and highlighting the potential challenges of asymmetric resistance against a far larger neighbour.
Canadian Army soldiers
Canadian Army soldiers Photo: VALDA KALNINA/PAP/EPA

According to The Globe and Mail, Canadian planners are studying scenarios in which small military units and potentially armed civilians could resist a much larger invading force using ambushes, sabotage, drone strikes and rapid attacks on selected targets.

A hypothetical scenario with real implications

The newspaper stressed that these are not operational plans, but exercises in strategic analysis.

Drawing lessons from history

Some of the models reportedly draw on tactics employed by Afghan mujahideen against Soviet forces during the 1980s invasion of Afghanistan - demonstrating how prolonged resistance could be sustained even against a vastly superior military power.

Expert analysis: decades of potential resistance

Last year, Professor Aisha Ahmad of the University of Toronto, an expert on insurgent movements, argued in The Conversation that a military invasion of Canada would likely provoke decades of violent resistance, ultimately making occupation politically and economically untenable.

In such scenarios, Canadians could be surprisingly effective in defending their country.

Political context and US rhetoric

The renewed attention to these scenarios comes amid provocative statements from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Canada as a potential “51st state”.

Earlier this week, Trump posted a social media image showing a map marked with the US flag extending over both Canada and Greenland.

NBC News reported that he has also voiced concerns about Canada’s vulnerability to hostile powers in the Arctic, a region of growing strategic importance.

Public opinion in Canada

A recent EKOS poll found that 59 per cent of Canadians believe the country should defend itself, even if the chances of victory are slim.

Support for defence was highest among voters of the Liberal Party (73 per cent) and the New Democratic Party (78 per cent), while 46 per cent of Bloc Québécois supporters favoured resistance.

Conservative voters were less convinced, with only 38 per cent supporting military defence.


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Source: PAP/theglobeandmail.com/X/@globepolitics