Janatan Sayeh, an Iranian-born analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the American-Israeli bombing campaign appears to have focused on Iran’s ballistic missiles, nuclear sites and military infrastructure rather than on removing the country’s political leadership.
That, he argued, helps explain why senior figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were among the main targets, while leading political officials remained in place.
The IRGC is Iran’s elite ideological and military force, separate from the regular army and central to protecting the Islamic Republic.
“Perhaps that was the US plan, to have someone left to negotiate with,” Sayeh said, as cited by Poland's PAP news agency.
His comments came after US President Donald Trump announced overnight on Wednesday a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
Trump said advanced work was underway on an agreement concerning peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East.
Trump also published Tehran’s declaration on a two-week ceasefire and the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route, on condition that Iran not be attacked.
The declaration was signed on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Sayeh said Iran’s ruling system had remained virtually untouched despite losses he estimated at around 8,000 people during the US and Israeli strikes.
In his view, the Islamic Republic was built to survive even the loss of its top leader. He noted that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not appeared in public.
According to Sayeh, two pillars sustain the Iranian state in a crisis: the armed forces, which are now waging war, and the coercive apparatus of courts and police.
He said five institutions, and the officials who lead them, form the core of the current regime and all survived the bombardment.
Among them, he said, is parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is involved in talks with the Americans. Sayeh described him as a former IRGC officer with a record of harsh repression, including during the 1999 student protests in Iran.
He also pointed to Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, head of the Supreme National Security Council, which he said coordinates Iran’s military, intelligence, foreign policy, internal security and nuclear decision-making.
Sayeh said Zolghadr has been sanctioned by countries including Canada and Britain over serious human rights abuses tied to the suppression of protests.
Another key figure, Sayeh said, is Ahmad Vahidi, whom Sayeh described as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a former interior minister sanctioned by the European Union.
The analyst said Vahidi is wanted by the Interpol over the 1994 bombing in Argentina that killed 85 people and has also been linked to the 1983 bombing of barracks in Beirut in which 241 US soldiers died.
The other two senior figures he named are judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan, both of whom he said oversee internal repression.
Sayeh said Ejei has supervised public hangings of detainees arrested during anti-government protests in January. He said Radan ordered the arrest of more than 21,000 people during last year’s 12-day war and announced more than 500 further arrests since the current conflict began.
“As long as all these institutions remain untouched, the regime will keep functioning,” Sayeh was quoted as saying.
He added that many Iranians still hope the regime will be overthrown or at least weakened.
He said Trump and US-based opposition figure Reza Pahlavi have signaled that a moment may come when Iranians will be called on to rise up.
But, he added, it is unclear whether or when the regime will weaken enough for such a revolt to be possible.
Sayeh said many Iranians fear most a deal between Tehran and Washington that would allow the current authorities to survive.
He added that some would prefer a failure of diplomacy if that forced the United States to finish what it had started.
At the same time, he said, a revolt would be difficult because ordinary Iranians are unarmed and the coercive system remains strong.
Although US and Israeli attacks damaged military infrastructure, he said the armed forces survived and moved from destroyed bases into city streets, where they are intimidating residents with weapons.
He also said the authorities have brought in Shiite militias from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“The coercive apparatus is also carrying out public executions, and that had not been happening for a long time,” Sayeh said, according to the PAP news agency.
Asked about public sentiment inside Iran, Sayeh said many Iranians were prepared to endure great hardship if it increased the chances of political change.
He noted that even before the war, Iran’s economy was in severe distress and many people were going hungry.
Still, he said, they do not want their country reduced to ruins like Gaza, a scenario they fear even if, for now, it does not seem imminent.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP