Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned over the weekend that efforts to free political prisoners should not result in the political legitimization of Lukashenko’s government.
Speaking at the New Belarus conference in Warsaw on August 8, Tsikhanouskaya welcomed negotiations aimed at securing prisoners' release but cautioned against allowing humanitarian deals to strengthen Lukashenko's international standing.
Her remarks come as Western governments increasingly pursue different approaches toward Belarus.
The United States has reopened direct talks with Lukashenko and linked partial sanctions relief to political prisoner releases. France has also restored direct communication with the Belarusian leader.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has strengthened ties with Belarusian democratic forces while increasing political and legal pressure on Minsk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Tsikhanouskaya in Vilnius in January. In May, she visited Kyiv for the first time since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Kyrylo Budanov, formerly head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and now head of the presidential office, met Belarusian political prisoners and opposition figures released in December.
The meetings marked a change from Kyiv’s earlier caution. Under former presidential office chief Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian officials had avoided high-level contacts with Tsikhanouskaya, partly over concerns that open support for the opposition could push Lukashenko closer to Moscow.
Yaroslav Chornohor, Ukraine’s ambassador-at-large responsible for cooperation with democratic forces in hostile states, has described deeper cooperation with the Belarusian opposition as a response to changing circumstances.
Washington has taken a more transactional approach toward Minsk. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, met Lukashenko in Minsk on March 19.
The United States subsequently eased some sanctions affecting Belarusian companies and financial institutions in exchange for political prisoner releases.
Belarus freed 123 prisoners in December, including pro-democracy activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.
In April, journalist and Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut was released with US support after more than five years in prison, and traveled to Poland.
According to the London-based international affairs think tank Chatham House, about 500 people had been released under the process by June. Another planned round was postponed that month, exposing the limits of the negotiations.
Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda said Washington’s longer-term objective remained uncertain.
"The Americans themselves do not know exactly what goal they want to achieve with their policy toward Minsk," he told Poland's PAP news agency, pointing to economic interests alongside political and humanitarian considerations.
France has also reopened direct communication with Lukashenko. In May, President Emmanuel Macron spoke to him by telephone for the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Western accounts said Macron warned Lukashenko against deeper involvement in Russia’s war.
Kyiv has instead combined closer ties with the Belarusian opposition with growing pressure on Lukashenko’s government.
In June, Zelensky demanded that Belarus disable relay equipment that Ukraine said Russia was using to help guide drones toward Ukrainian targets. Kyiv said the equipment temporarily stopped operating, although some devices were later reported to have been reactivated.
That same month, Zelensky also pointed to Belarus developing roads and ammunition and fuel storage facilities near the Ukrainian border "for military purposes."
In July, Ukrainian authorities asked the prosecutor general to consider criminal proceedings against Lukashenko over his role in Russia’s aggression, including allowing Russian forces to use Belarusian territory.
Kyiv is also considering joining proceedings initiated by Lithuania at the International Criminal Court over alleged crimes against humanity committed in Belarus.
The different approaches put Belarus’s democratic opposition in a more complicated position.
Ukraine increasingly regards it as a potential partner, while Washington and Paris are testing renewed engagement with Lukashenko.
For Tsikhanouskaya and her allies, the challenge is to maintain international support while preventing negotiations with Minsk from restoring Lukashenko's political legitimacy.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP