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I UNDERSTAND
English Section

Polish GDP to shrink 5.4% in 2020, grow 4.9% in 2021: central bank

20.07.2020 06:15
Poland’s central bank has updated its GDP growth forecasts for the country, saying it now expects the economy to contract by 5.4 percent this year, followed by 4.9 percent growth in 2021.
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The Warsaw headquarters of the National Bank of Poland (NBP).Photo: PAP/Tomasz Gzell

In its latest Inflation Report, released at the end of last week, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said that “the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and administrative restrictions imposed on economic and social life in the first half of 2020 led to a deep recession in the global economy, including Poland.”

The Polish central bank added that “the fall in domestic GDP results from three interrelated negative shocks: reduced household and corporate expenditure in response to falling income and rising uncertainty, limited activity in industries and sectors directly affected by the lockdown and weaker external demand.”

The bank also said that “along with the lifting of restrictions and the recovery abroad, domestic economic activity will pick up, supported by the government’s anti-crisis measures and monetary easing.”

It added, however, that “it will take some time for GDP to return to the pre-COVID-19 level.”

The central bank also forecast in its latest report that Poland’s GDP would grow by 3.7 percent in 2022.

In its March projection, the bank said it expected the Polish economy to grow 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2021.

The European Commission forecast this month that the Polish economy would shrink 4.6 percent in 2020 amid the coronavirus crisis but then rebound to expand by 4.3 percent in 2021.

(gs)

Source: PAP, nbp.pl