He told reporters on Thursday that forecasts from both the central bank (NBP) and external institutions pointed to inflation holding near the 2.5 percent target, with a tolerance band of 1 percentage point.
Glapiński said price growth may tick up slightly around the end of the year, depending largely on energy tariffs.
He added that the NBP’s baseline forecast assumes electricity prices remained unchanged, but "there are signals they could even fall," which would further ease inflation.
Core inflation has dropped below 3 percent for the first time in six years, driven by slower growth in service prices, according to Glapiński.
His remarks came after the Polish central bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Council on Wednesday cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4 percent, marking its sixth reduction this year as inflation declines.
The central bank's latest inflation report, released in early November, estimates that GDP growth will reach 3.4 percent in 2025 and accelerate to 3.7 percent in 2026.
Rate cuts lower debt costs
Glapiński said that interest-rate cuts totalling 1.75 percentage points this year have reduced public-debt servicing costs by PLN 25 billion over two years – a "positive side effect" of bringing inflation back to target.
He said economic conditions remained broadly positive, citing "relatively high" growth, low inflation and easing wage pressures amid declining employment in some sectors.
But he warned that risks persist, including still-elevated service-sector inflation and the expected acceleration in the spending of EU funds, which could add to demand-driven price pressures.
Glapiński pointed to Poland’s fiscal position as "a key vulnerability."
Poland’s public deficit, expected to approach 7 percent of GDP this year, limits room for further monetary easing, he said.
Gold reserves lift bank’s finances
Glapiński said the NBP’s financial results have improved thanks to rising gold prices.
Poland now holds nearly 531 tonnes of gold after recent purchases, and the bank has increased the share of gold in its reserves to 30 percent.
He said the final financial result for 2025 will be published after the year ends, noting potential "dynamic changes" in the final weeks.
(ał/gs)
Source: PAP