Financial analysts said the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a U.S. operation on Jan. 2 sparked market unease. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves — 303 billion barrels, according to OPEC — surpassing Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia.
However, years of economic collapse and sanctions have crippled Venezuela’s oil production and exports. Kamil Szczepański of XTB said short-term market fundamentals remain unchanged despite geopolitical shifts. He predicted that only a pro-U.S. government, followed by infrastructure investment and production recovery, could eventually put downward pressure on oil prices.
Szczepański added that Venezuela’s heavy, sour crude could help offset a shortage in the U.S. domestic market. He also noted that oil policy has both economic and political implications, especially in an election year.
Tomasz Niewiński of PKO BP said the global oil market responded calmly to events in Venezuela, noting that China — the main importer of Venezuelan oil — had built large reserves in 2023. Disruptions in Venezuelan supply, which averaged 800,000 barrels per day, are currently not significant, he said.
Still, Niewiński warned of long-term price pressure as Venezuelan output could rise. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 3.8 million barrel daily surplus in 2026. U.S. Energy Department projections put global stock growth at 2.3 million barrels per day.
Reuters’ consensus forecast for Brent crude in 2026 is just over USD 61 per barrel, while the U.S. government predicts an average of USD 55.
Geopolitical tensions — including potential new sanctions on Russia — could also influence prices, Niewiński noted. He added that U.S. pressure on India might reduce its purchases of Russian oil, further shifting supply chains.
Jakub Bogucki of e-petrol.pl said Chinese demand remains weak due to economic stagnation and a shift toward cleaner technologies. He warned that any return of Venezuelan oil would only deepen the supply glut — already worsened by discounted Russian oil.
Bogucki stressed that Venezuela’s structural and technological limitations mean large-scale production cannot resume quickly. U.S. companies may prefer investing domestically rather than in an unstable region, he added.
Fuel prices in Poland are expected to remain stable for now, Bogucki said. Gasoline currently averages PLN 5.75 per liter, with fluctuations of around PLN 0,05 expected through January. Diesel is forecast to stay between PLN 6.00 and 6.10 per liter.
(jh)
Source: PAP