The IMF, the UN’s financial agency, has forecast that Poland’s long-term growth potential will hover at around 3% annually between 2024 and 2028.
Since 1992, Poland has seen an average annual growth of 3.6%, which allowed the country to make seismic strides in the economic standard of living for Poles.
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s growth was dampened, with GDP growth projections for 2023 at 0.3%, down from 4.9% in 2022, according to the IMF.
However, beyond 2023, solid growth is set to return, with forecasts of 2.4% and 3.7% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.
“Despite the current challenges, the medium-term economic growth outlook remains favorable,” the IMF has written, anticipating a “cyclical rebound.”
The financial institution added that Poland’s “negative effects of population aging are offset by stronger investment financed in part by Next Generation EU grants.”
However, the agency stressed that uncertainty in the country “remains unusually high” amid high inflation and perils related to the escalation of the war in Ukraine and the recent turmoil in the global banking sector.
The IMF also underscored the need for mitigating energy shocks and taming still-high inflation by way of tightening the purse strings.
Sources: imf.org, Puls Biznesu
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