The findings, published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, lower the estimated minimum temperature needed for transmission to about 13-14 degrees Celsius (55-57 Fahrenheit) — roughly 2.5 degrees Celsius lower than earlier estimates of 16-18 C, according to the study summary provided.
That shift broadens where and how long the virus could circulate, the researchers said.
“Expansion of the disease north is only a matter of time,” said Sandeep Tegar of the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, one of the study’s authors.
Chikungunya is mainly spread by the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). It can trigger fever, flu-like symptoms and “excruciating” joint pain, and can be debilitating. In small children and older people, it can be fatal, the source text said. The virus was first detected in Tanzania in 1952 and for decades was largely limited to tropical regions.
The researchers said higher temperatures linked to the climate crisis mean infections are now possible for more than six months of the year in parts of southern Europe and for around two months in southeast England, and that ongoing global heating is likely to push the risk farther north.
“Twenty years ago, if you said that Europe would have chikungunya and dengue fever, everyone would have said you were crazy: these are tropical diseases. Now everything has changed,” said Dr. Steven White of the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, according to the text, citing invasive mosquitoes and climate change.
The source text also said chikungunya outbreaks in Europe have become more frequent in recent years, with cases recorded in more than 10 European countries, including in 2025 in France and Italy.
Dr. Diana Rojas Alvarez of the World Health Organization called the findings significant, saying they suggest transmission in Europe “may over time become even more visible,” and warning the disease can be debilitating and may cause arthritis or severe pain for up to five years after infection, according to the text.
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Source: RMF24, The Guardian