Former prime minister David Cameron in particular and the UK in general are painfully aware of the potential risks of "asking the people" to resolve a contentious issue.
Cameron expected to win the Brexit vote (i.e. remain) with the referendum serving as a facade of "asking the people". But the vote went the other way and today "Bregret" is rife. Yougov estimates that today remain would win 64% to 36%.
Poland's Third Way - an alliance of centre-right parties PSL and Poland 2050 - has proposed the most conservative of the four bills that all aim to liberalise abortion law in Poland. After returning to the "abortion compromise" - abortion would be illegal except in cases of severe disability of the foetus, as well as existing exceptions of pregnancy that is the result of crime or a risk to the mother's life or health - Third Way advocates putting the final decision to the "people" in a referendum.
This solution is vehemently opposed by The Left and NGOs such as Amnesty International who published "75 reasons" not to put the matter to a referendum vote.
Some of the arguments seem to have extreme implications such as the argument that a referendum would improperly give undue weight to the opinions of those "not directly affected by the issue" - i.e. older people and men. This would appear to go against democratic principles where votes are not limited to "interested parties".
Similar arguments were heard in the run up to Brexit - that the decision impacts young people more than the elderly, but the elderly voted predominantly leave while those under 18 could not vote at all - despite overwhelmingly supporting remain.
Arguments finding both supporters and critics include the belief that abortion is a human right (hence Amnesty's position on the matter.) This doesn't seem to accord with Polish public opinion, however, where surveys have shown that between 60 and 70% of Poles do consider an abortion to be a "tragedy". They nevertheless believe (around 70%) that it should be for the woman or couple, not the government, to decide. This combination of convictions does not seem to be captured by saying that abortion is a human right.
The United States Supreme Court famously resolved this issue in its (now overturned) 1973 Roe v Wade ruling. The Court found a constitutional right to privacy in the Due Process Clause which implied a limited right to abortion - until the foetus is viable outside the woman's womb.
Other arguments against a referendum have been mentioned more widely in the press. How should the referendum questions be formulated to fairly represent subtle differences of opinion? Will a mass-media debate not lead (like Brexit) to the domination of populist arguments?
Sources: Rzeczpospolita, amnesty.org
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