Despite winning the 2023 elections, PiS was unable to form a stable government, opening the door for the centrist Civic Coalition to take power. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2027.
The Trump administration’s support for Nawrocki - a relatively unknown candidate mired in controversy, including allegations related to taking over an elderly man’s apartment, contentious decisions during his tenure at the Museum of the Second World War and the Institute of National Remembrance, as well as involvement in football hooligan brawls - might have been hard to justify, were it not for US Republicans seeing him as a counterweight to Donald Tusk’s pro-European government and a safeguard for strong transatlantic ties.
Between the pen and the boxing glove — or rather... the baseball bat
Although Karol Nawrocki’s predecessor, Andrzej Duda, served two full terms as president, many Poles remember his activity as limited to a few more or less significant episodes. One notable exception was Duda’s active role in relations with Kyiv following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
The inauguration of Poland’s new president. The outgoing presidential couple and their successors with family. Photo: PAP/Paweł Supernak
On domestic policy, Duda often acted as a rubber stamp, signing laws aligned with the wishes of the Law and Justice (PiS) leader - earning him the nickname “the pen.” Conversely, he blocked legislation that did not have the approval of PiS chief Jarosław Kaczyński.
After the opposition Civic Coalition took power on October 15, Duda also resisted some ambassadorial nominees, testing the patience of Radosław Sikorski, who now serves as both foreign minister and deputy prime minister.
However, there are strong indications that Nawrocki will not be treated as a mere tool by the Polish right-wing as his predecessor was - both because the geopolitical context has shifted since Duda’s early presidency, and because the stakes for the new PiS nominee appear significantly higher.
Rather than being dismissed as a “new pen,” Nawrocki would likely prefer comparisons evoking sporting rivalry - much like Rocky Balboa, whom he frequently referenced during his campaign. He cleverly played on his name, highlighting the “Now Rocky” sound-alike to connect himself with the legendary movie boxer.
Before leaving office, Andrzej Duda mocked the reductive view of the presidency by sharing a drawing by Andrzej Milewski, known as Andrzej Rysuje, on his X profile.
The cartoon paraphrased a popular Polish saying, “Uncle swapped the hatchet for a stick,” substituting the final tools with a symbolic pen and a baseball bat.
This image offers a clear nod to the expectations held by Poland’s Atlantic allies toward the new presidential team.
The American administration would certainly not mind Poland adopting a more distant stance toward the European Union - and might even welcome a shift toward a presidential system.
Yet the problem lies in the Polish Constitution, which clearly states that while the president cooperates with the government on foreign policy, it is the prime minister and foreign minister who set its course. Nawrocki will therefore be compelled to follow the direction laid out by Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski. The question remains - will he accept it?
The Americans are well aware that Tusk’s goal is a pro-European foreign policy. For the U.S., Nawrocki may serve as a reliable buffer in dealings with the EU. In practice, however, it may not be international relations that prove the greatest challenge for Poland’s new president.
Although Karol Nawrocki insists he will not be treated by the right as a mere figurehead like Andrzej Duda, his visit to Poland’s most important Catholic shrine just before the inauguration suggests the Church will remain as close an ally as it was under his predecessor. Photo: PAP/Leszek Szymański
The radical right’s rise
For Karol Nawrocki, the challenge of leading Poland’s right wing may prove tougher than competing against Donald Tusk’s government. He faces pressure not only from the far-right Confederation party but also from an increasingly radicalized Law and Justice (PiS) and populist groups flirting with extremism.
Despite internal tensions - such as over abortion - the Civic Coalition remains in power and enjoys institutional advantages. This holds true even as parts of the electorate, particularly women, grow disillusioned by the government’s failure to deliver on key promises.
Jarosław Kaczyński recently declared that the world is becoming more radical - a claim he says is backed by “all the research.” Yet Kaczyński himself appears to be stoking anti-immigrant and racist sentiments in practice. The result? A rise in ethnically motivated attacks - not by migrants, as PiS claims, but by young Poles committing racist acts.
Similar radical right-wing groups have long sought political gain in Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which traces its roots to groups like the Reichsbürger conspiracy movement, draws support from a mix of wealthy backers and fringe communities - ranging from anti-vaxxers and alternative medicine advocates to some Jehovah’s Witnesses.
The Reichsbürger cause’s popularity even culminated in a foiled coup attempt. While German authorities arrested key leaders and prevented the plot, they have struggled to contain the wider spotlight on other radicals.
Operating legally and drawing on the Reichsbürger legacy, the AfD now wins support even in traditionally centrist regions. Capitalizing on this controversy, Elon Musk has openly shown support, once striking poses reminiscent of Nazi salutes at an AfD event.
Right-wing populists have no qualms about courting votes by fanning xenophobia and hostility toward migrants.
Despite the apparent distrust of Germans on Poland’s right, far-right Confederation members openly align themselves with the German AfD, while antisemitic rhetoric increasingly surfaces in statements from PiS politicians - including Jarosław Kaczyński himself.
In his struggle for right-wing support, Nawrocki must also consider the interests of his financial backers who helped secure his victory. He will soon face decisions on several controversial laws long held in reserve - such as the so-called Act 447 on property claims (officially the Justice for Uncompensated Survivors Today Act of 2017) - which have awaited a more radical successor to Andrzej Duda.
The political future of Nawrocki
Nawrocki’s slogan, “Let’s Make Poland Great,” was clearly inspired by Trump’s “Make America Great Again.” Photo: PAP/Paweł Supernak
What does Karol Nawrocki’s presidency mean for Poland? While analysts and polling agencies compete to predict the outcome, the political reality continues to surprise and defy expectations.
Skepticism is widespread. Nawrocki has faced open criticism from notable figures, including former president and Solidarity icon Lech Wałęsa, who refused to attend his inauguration, citing outrage over the controversy surrounding the recount of votes in some electoral commissions after the second round.
Symbolic gestures carry particular weight today, as Poland stands at a crossroads. On one hand, its economy rivals that of the Asian “tigers,” and it plays an important role within the European Union. On the other, right-wing rhetoric fuels rising xenophobia and anti-Semitism.
Journalist, historian, and former Auschwitz prisoner Marian Turski has long warned: “Auschwitz did not fall from the sky.” His caution remains deeply relevant - neglecting history and stirring divisions often mark the first steps toward tragedy.
Nawrocki must decide which Poland he will represent, because, as the saying goes, the line between tragedy and comedy is often very thin… Let us only hope that no self-styled Border Defence patrols takes it upon themselves to guard that line too zealously.
Monika Piorun
The author is a journalist and online editor at Radio Poland, the English section of the Polish Radio External Service.
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