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Russia to slow down its assault on Ukraine: analysis

25.08.2022 11:00
Russia is set to slow down the pace of its offensive operations in Ukraine, while maintaining its strategic war aims, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank. 
Russian weapons captured by Ukrainian troops on the frontlines in Ukraines eastern Donbas region, seen on August 19, 2022.
Russian weapons captured by Ukrainian troops on the frontlines in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, seen on August 19, 2022.PAP/Vladyslav Karpovych

The Kremlin’s stance has been set out by the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, the ISW said in its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Wednesday night. 

Appearing at a meeting with defence ministers from member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on Wednesday, Shoigu stated that Russian troops “will be slowing down the pace of offensive operations in Ukraine in a conscious effort to minimise civilian casualties,” as cited by the US think tank.

At the same time, Shoigu reiterated that operations in Ukraine “are going according to plan” and that Russian forces “will accomplish all their objectives,” the ISW reported. 

The US experts noted that Shoigu’s words supported ISW’s assessment that “Russia’s maximalist strategic war aims in Ukraine have not changed.” 

The ISW also pointed out that the Russian Ministry of Defence “has previously issued similar statements to account for the pace of operations in Ukraine.”

Russia’s recent gains in Ukraine ‘negligible’

According to the US think tank Shoigu's words “may also represent an attempt by the Russian MoD to set information conditions to explain and excuse the negligible gains Russian forces have made in Ukraine in the last six weeks.”

As the ISW noted, “Since Russian forces resumed offensive operations following a pause on July 16, Russian forces have gained about 450.84 km2 (roughly 174 square miles) of new territory, an area around the size of Andorra.”

Meanwhile, Russian troops “have lost roughly 45,000 km2 of territory since March 21 (the estimated date of Russian forces’ deepest advance into Ukraine), an area larger than Denmark,” the US analysts said.

The ISW reiterated its assessment that “Russian forces are unable to translate limited tactical gains into wider operational successes, and their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are culminating.”

Shoigu’s statement “is likely an attempt to explain away these failings,” according to the American experts.

Russia's ground attacks limited, Ukraine targets Russian military assets

Reviewing the latest developments on Ukraine’s frontlines, the ISW noted that Russian forces “conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk City,” in the southeastern Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, Russian troops also “conducted a limited ground attack in northwestern Kherson Oblast” in southern Ukraine, the US analysts said.

At the same time, “Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts” in the south of the country, the think tank added.

The ISW also noted that “Russian occupation authorities continue to face partisan and internal challenges to the administration of occupation agendas,” while “Russian proxy leadership is continuing efforts to oversee the legislative and administrative integration of occupied territories into Russian systems.”

Thursday is day 183 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

(pm)

Source: understandingwar.org, Reuters, euromaidanpress.com