The US think tank made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Wednesday night.
Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and warned the West he was ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.
Russia's call-up 'won't generate significant combat power for months'
The ISW commented that the Kremlin leader’s “announcement of ‘partial mobilisation’ on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.”
The US experts wrote: “Putin’s order to mobilise part of Russia’s ‘trained’ reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months.”
According to the ISW, the partial call-up “may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear.”
Moreover, Putin’s partial mobilisation of reserves “will occur in deliberate phases,” the US think tank noted, citing an interview with the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on September 21.
The ISW stated that this phased nature of the call-up will likely preclude “any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.”
The US experts concluded that “Russia’s partial mobilisation will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter.”
‘We can return Ukrainian flag to our entire territory’: Zelensky
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday night addressed the United Nations General Assembly.
Speaking in English via video link from Kyiv, Ukraine’s head of state did not specifically discuss Russia’s mobilisation, the first such move since World War II, but said that Russia’s suggestions of negotiations were “a delaying tactic,” news outlets reported.
“They talk about the talks but announce military mobilisation. They talk about the talks but announce pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
Amid Ukraine’s successful advances in the east and south of the country, Zelensky also declared that Kyiv’s troops would not stop until they had liberated all of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian leader said: “We can return the Ukrainian flag to our entire territory. We can do it with the force of arms. But we need time.”
Zelensky urged the international community to unite against Russia’s assault on Ukraine and deprive Moscow of its veto power on the UN Security Council, among other punitive measures, the US broadcaster CNN reported.
Thursday is day 211 of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Source: understandingwar.org, CNN, apnews.com, thehill.com